Who's betting on “Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?”?
Politics · $519K volume · Ends July 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 6¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $519K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on July 1, 2027.
29% of the money on Yes and 41% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 12 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 14 points. A week ago, No by 17 points.
465 wallets hold a position worth $164K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 463 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x1e77401bB590f95C1202e4FC65D4028c09C5C65f-1761894302097, with $1.9K on it, $2.7K lifetime loss over 80 markets (66% won). The largest No holder is xenonliu, with $53K on it, $7.1K lifetime loss over 328 markets (63% won).
- Smart money share
- 29%
- Holders
- 114
- Money on it
- $9.0K
- Holders' winrate
- 56%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 41% ▼ 1 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 351
- Money on it
- $155K
- Holders' winrate
- 72%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x1e77401bB590f95C1202e4FC65D4028c09C5C65f-1761894302097 | $1.9K | -$2.7K | 66% of 80 |
| topsecret17 | $1.3K | -$26K | 19% of 72 |
| 0xB886580698eDE4b18DE3E446b2D8Da8bCEdd81B3-1767532547794whale | $1.1K | +$35K | 49% of 1,032 |
| BarryandLarrytradiing | $739 | -$8.1K | 60% of 5 |
| comon119 | $659 | -$4.0M | 96% of 1,000 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| xenonliu | $53K | -$7.1K | 63% of 328 |
| jackchen-cs | $11K | +$2.4K | 85% of 13 |
| hgamezoon | $7.6K | +$517 | 67% of 3 |
| 0xA60FE9ddA6E940Af2422b755fB8AC8E315A270f0-1723214234314 | $6.7K | -$399 | 82% of 83 |
| sailg | $5.0K | +$211 | 100% of 1 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?"?
465 wallets hold a position worth $164K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 463 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x1e77401bB590f95C1202e4FC65D4028c09C5C65f-1761894302097, with $1.9K on it, $2.7K lifetime loss over 80 markets (66% won). The largest No holder is xenonliu, with $53K on it, $7.1K lifetime loss over 328 markets (63% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 6¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $519K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on July 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
29% of the money on Yes and 41% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 12 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 14 points. A week ago, No by 17 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on July 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.