Who's betting on “Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31”?
Politics · $534K volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 8¢ and No at 93¢, a 93% implied chance of No. $534K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
79% of the money on Yes and 91% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 12 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 12 points. A week ago, No by 12 points.
222 wallets hold a position worth $43K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 222 of them. The largest Yes holder is Pulser, with $799 on it, $138K lifetime profit over 221 markets (68% won). The largest No holder is M2sx92kljs42, with $14K on it, $63K lifetime profit over 514 markets (78% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $642 on Yes.
- Smart money share
- 79%
- Holders
- 115
- Money on it
- $3.2K
- Holders' winrate
- 64%
- Snipers
- 1 · $642
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 91%
- Holders
- 107
- Money on it
- $40K
- Holders' winrate
- 66%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pulserwhale | $799 | +$138K | 68% of 221 |
| grothsniper | $642 | +$145K | 77% of 486 |
| Marco-Rubiowhale | $338 | +$75K | 58% of 1,085 |
| 8dcc906a9b | $248 | -$38K | 52% of 155 |
| AlAhmeda | $152 | -$100K | 70% of 1,290 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| M2sx92kljs42whale | $14K | +$63K | 78% of 514 |
| Xendo1balanced | $12K | +$6.6K | 50% of 172 |
| 0x854e4d73287126Df3966b187d29dB7C4CD4Fb675-1767787438325balanced | $5.9K | +$4.3K | 77% of 47 |
| Javier777Mileiwhale | $1.9K | +$12K | 46% of 851 |
| OMAST | $1.8K | -$2.4K | 48% of 62 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?
- October 31$11K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- September 30$20K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
Who's betting on Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…? →
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31"?
222 wallets hold a position worth $43K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 222 of them. The largest Yes holder is Pulser, with $799 on it, $138K lifetime profit over 221 markets (68% won). The largest No holder is M2sx92kljs42, with $14K on it, $63K lifetime profit over 514 markets (78% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 8¢ and No at 93¢, a 93% implied chance of No. $534K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
79% of the money on Yes and 91% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 12 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 12 points. A week ago, No by 12 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.