Who's betting on “Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?”?
Politics · $330K volume · Ends November 4, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 27¢ and No at 74¢, a 74% implied chance of No. $330K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
58% of the money on Yes and 84% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 26 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 25 points. A week ago, No by 27 points.
322 wallets hold a position worth $176K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 321 of them. The largest Yes holder is lastminwin, with $17K on it, $10K lifetime loss over 7 markets (57% won). The largest No holder is aenews2, with $22K on it, $2.3M lifetime profit over 1,114 markets (73% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $209 on Yes.
- Smart money share
- 58%
- Holders
- 113
- Money on it
- $57K
- Holders' winrate
- 58%
- Snipers
- 1 · $209
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 84%
- Holders
- 209
- Money on it
- $119K
- Holders' winrate
- 70%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| lastminwin | $17K | -$10K | 57% of 7 |
| Loyalty-Crashwhale | $9.1K | +$85K | 53% of 173 |
| Mangy62balanced | $5.1K | +$13K | 80% of 199 |
| BigRabbitnoise | $4.0K | +$131K | 37% of 1,058 |
| wan123whale | $2.8K | +$1.2M | 79% of 273 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| aenews2whale | $22K | +$2.3M | 73% of 1,114 |
| gopfan2whale | $13K | +$1.7M | 79% of 1,012 |
| grinder1011whale | $7.6K | +$21K | 46% of 477 |
| Valen9whale | $7.5K | +$233K | 62% of 895 |
| Tigerofthehoodwhale | $7.3K | +$274K | 85% of 246 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?"?
322 wallets hold a position worth $176K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 321 of them. The largest Yes holder is lastminwin, with $17K on it, $10K lifetime loss over 7 markets (57% won). The largest No holder is aenews2, with $22K on it, $2.3M lifetime profit over 1,114 markets (73% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 27¢ and No at 74¢, a 74% implied chance of No. $330K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
58% of the money on Yes and 84% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 26 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 25 points. A week ago, No by 27 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.