Who's betting on “Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?”?
Politics · $337K volume · Ends November 4, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $337K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
70% of the money on Yes and 88% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 18 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 28 points. A week ago, Yes by 49 points.
90 wallets hold a position worth $19K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 90 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x9e3ed7b661a903fc97afcf49e0f014ebe869f882-1783406009396, with $334 on it, $3.8M lifetime loss over 68,606 markets (47% won). The largest No holder is TimRob, with $7.1K on it, $21K lifetime profit over 283 markets (56% won).
- Smart money share
- 70%
- Holders
- 61
- Money on it
- $2.2K
- Holders' winrate
- 58%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 88% ▼ 11 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 29
- Money on it
- $17K
- Holders' winrate
- 51%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x9e3ed7b661a903fc97afcf49e0f014ebe869f882-1783406009396 | $334 | -$3.8M | 47% of 68,606 |
| magiccat007balanced | $260 | +$5.7K | 59% of 114 |
| conherencebalanced | $250 | +$3.2K | 79% of 318 |
| Ludoeaglewhale | $196 | +$14K | 68% of 300 |
| 0x6992D56559Dd30b5B5D0F5cA3D5427F9e94e6c1d-1760272837095noise | $185 | +$2.0K | 45% of 298 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| TimRobwhale | $7.1K | +$21K | 56% of 283 |
| ArmageddonRewardsBillywhale | $4.2K | +$306K | 44% of 3,734 |
| Alicie | $2.8K | +$469 | 73% of 15 |
| Digital-Boy | $1.9K | -$77K | 15% of 1,974 |
| glhfggwhale | $585 | +$74K | 63% of 1,043 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?
- Oil < $85; D Senate$328K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Oil ≥ $85; D Senate$298K vol.Yes 65%No 35%Smart money: No
- Oil ≥ $85; R Senate$216K vol.Yes 28%No 72%Smart money: Yes
Who's betting on Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms? →
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?"?
90 wallets hold a position worth $19K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 90 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x9e3ed7b661a903fc97afcf49e0f014ebe869f882-1783406009396, with $334 on it, $3.8M lifetime loss over 68,606 markets (47% won). The largest No holder is TimRob, with $7.1K on it, $21K lifetime profit over 283 markets (56% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $337K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
70% of the money on Yes and 88% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 18 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 28 points. A week ago, Yes by 49 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.