Who's betting on “Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?”?
Politics · $297K volume · Ends November 4, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 65¢ and No at 35¢, a 65% implied chance of Yes. $297K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
53% of the money on Yes and 81% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 28 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 18 points. A week ago, Yes by 20 points.
246 wallets hold a position worth $35K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 246 of them. The largest Yes holder is gotozer0, with $5.6K on it, $1.9K lifetime loss over 324 markets (77% won). The largest No holder is Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed, with $343 on it, $154K lifetime profit over 13,103 markets (56% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $0 on No.
- Smart money share
- 53%
- Holders
- 151
- Money on it
- $34K
- Holders' winrate
- 61%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 81% ▲ 9 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 95
- Money on it
- $1.1K
- Holders' winrate
- 54%
- Snipers
- 1 · $0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| gotozer0 | $5.6K | -$1.9K | 77% of 324 |
| Lolakiswhale | $5.3K | +$89K | 65% of 1,506 |
| lissartter | $3.4K | -$270K | 56% of 2,742 |
| 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271whale | $2.0K | +$65K | 63% of 5,496 |
| 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495noise | $1.3K | +$318K | 22% of 11,530 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedwhale | $343 | +$154K | 56% of 13,103 |
| CHIKI33balanced | $195 | +$6.1K | 60% of 146 |
| Haradwaith | $90 | -$334K | 50% of 45,650 |
| AJSVwhale | $74 | +$218K | 41% of 102,701 |
| pjotrekkknoise | $70 | +$20K | 24% of 1,562 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?
- Oil < $85; R Senate$337K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- Oil < $85; D Senate$328K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Oil ≥ $85; R Senate$216K vol.Yes 28%No 72%Smart money: Yes
Who's betting on Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms? →
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$75M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?"?
246 wallets hold a position worth $35K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 246 of them. The largest Yes holder is gotozer0, with $5.6K on it, $1.9K lifetime loss over 324 markets (77% won). The largest No holder is Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed, with $343 on it, $154K lifetime profit over 13,103 markets (56% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 65¢ and No at 35¢, a 65% implied chance of Yes. $297K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
53% of the money on Yes and 81% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 28 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 18 points. A week ago, Yes by 20 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.