Who's betting on “Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?”?
Politics · $1.0M volume · Closed · Updated October 9, 2026
This market closed on October 9, 2026 and resolved No. $1.0M has been traded on it.
84% of the money on Yes and 64% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 20 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 27 points. A week ago, Yes by 20 points.
549 wallets hold a position worth $61K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 544 of them.
- Smart money share
- 84% ▲ 7 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 313
- Money on it
- $265
- Holders' winrate
- 64%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 64% ▲ 13 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 236
- Money on it
- $61K
- Holders' winrate
- 87%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Donald Trump$8.0M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- UNRWA$2.1M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Yulia Navalnaya$2.0M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money split
- Xi Jinping$1.5M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money split
- Greta Thunberg$1.5M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money split
- Charlie Kirk$1.3M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Ahmed al-Sharaa$1.3M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Elon Musk$1.2M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Mohammed bin Salman$1.2M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- International Court of Justice$1.2M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Julian Assange$1.2M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money split
- Recep Tayyip Erdoğan$1.1M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Vladimir Putin$958K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Volodymyr Zelenskyy$935K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Khaled Mashal$913K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani$895K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Benjamin Netanyahu$797K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Narendra Modi$704K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- António Guterres$669K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Sara Al-Saqqa$296K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms$281K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Mykola Kuleba$228K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- International Criminal Court$141K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Committee to Protect Journalists$110K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$75M vol.Yes 19%No 81%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?"?
549 wallets hold a position worth $61K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 544 of them.
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?"?
This market closed on October 9, 2026 and resolved No. $1.0M has been traded on it.
Which side is the smart money on?
84% of the money on Yes and 64% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 20 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 27 points. A week ago, Yes by 20 points.
When does this market end?
This market closed on October 9, 2026 and resolved No. $1.0M has been traded on it.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.