Who's betting on “Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026”?
Politics · $392K volume · Closed · Updated October 1, 2026
This market closed on October 1, 2026 and resolved No. $392K has been traded on it.
34% of the money on Yes and 87% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 52 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 51 points. A week ago, No by 52 points.
238 wallets hold a position worth $151K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 238 of them.
- Smart money share
- 34%
- Holders
- 125
- Money on it
- $75
- Holders' winrate
- 60%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 87%
- Holders
- 113
- Money on it
- $151K
- Holders' winrate
- 79%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?
- December 31, 2026$2.4M vol.Yes 6%No 95%Smart money: No
- October 31, 2026$170K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- November 30, 2026$38K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- March 31, 2027$27K vol.Yes 9%No 92%Smart money: No
Who's betting on Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...? →
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Questions
Who is betting on "Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026"?
238 wallets hold a position worth $151K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 238 of them.
What are the Polymarket odds for "Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026"?
This market closed on October 1, 2026 and resolved No. $392K has been traded on it.
Which side is the smart money on?
34% of the money on Yes and 87% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 52 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 51 points. A week ago, No by 52 points.
When does this market end?
This market closed on October 1, 2026 and resolved No. $392K has been traded on it.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.