Who's betting on “Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?”?
Politics · $170K volume · Ends November 1, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $170K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
45% of the money on Yes and 89% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 44 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 43 points. A week ago, No by 36 points.
186 wallets hold a position worth $63K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 185 of them. The largest Yes holder is neutralwave23, with $65 on it, $2.9M lifetime loss over 27,056 markets (72% won). The largest No holder is GoriIIa, with $12K on it, $542K lifetime profit over 417 markets (72% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $1.5K on No.
- Smart money share
- 45%
- Holders
- 90
- Money on it
- $253
- Holders' winrate
- 58%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 89%
- Holders
- 96
- Money on it
- $63K
- Holders' winrate
- 78%
- Snipers
- 1 · $1.5K
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| neutralwave23 | $65 | -$2.9M | 72% of 27,056 |
| fiternoise | $25 | +$46K | 16% of 769 |
| ka7akbalanced | $18 | +$309 | 68% of 25 |
| 0x82c8…3f1d | $12 | - | - |
| geph | $12 | -$1.0K | 59% of 205 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| GoriIIawhale | $12K | +$542K | 72% of 417 |
| The Spirit of Ukraine>UMAwhale | $8.9K | +$1.8M | 69% of 1,104 |
| 18in36outbalanced | $7.5K | +$6.7K | 95% of 39 |
| aff3whale | $7.0K | +$264K | 79% of 276 |
| bryp12345 | $3.6K | -$9.5K | 67% of 49 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?
- December 31, 2026$2.4M vol.Yes 6%No 95%Smart money: No
- November 30, 2026$38K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- March 31, 2027$27K vol.Yes 9%No 92%Smart money: No
- September 30, 2026$392K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
Who's betting on Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...? →
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Questions
Who is betting on "Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?"?
186 wallets hold a position worth $63K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 185 of them. The largest Yes holder is neutralwave23, with $65 on it, $2.9M lifetime loss over 27,056 markets (72% won). The largest No holder is GoriIIa, with $12K on it, $542K lifetime profit over 417 markets (72% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $170K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
45% of the money on Yes and 89% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 44 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 43 points. A week ago, No by 36 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 1, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.