Who's betting on “Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?”?
Politics · $2.4M volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 6¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $2.4M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
50% of the money on Yes and 96% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 46 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 46 points. A week ago, No by 46 points.
875 wallets hold a position worth $785K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 875 of them. The largest Yes holder is neutralwave23, with $3.7K on it, $2.9M lifetime loss over 27,155 markets (72% won). The largest No holder is aff3, with $263K on it, $264K lifetime profit over 276 markets (79% won).
2 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $6.0K on No; the insider radar has flagged 1 wallet betting $4.7K on Yes.
- Smart money share
- 50%
- Holders
- 525
- Money on it
- $43K
- Holders' winrate
- 60%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 1 · $4.7K
- Smart money share
- 96%
- Holders
- 350
- Money on it
- $742K
- Holders' winrate
- 76%
- Snipers
- 2 · $6.0K
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| neutralwave23 | $3.7K | -$2.9M | 72% of 27,155 |
| flawfencewhale | $3.2K | +$477K | 75% of 478 |
| MerziPuperzi | $3.0K | +$0 | - |
| Danielj | $2.5K | +$4.8K | 100% of 4 |
| Animalmother | $2.2K | -$1.1K | 67% of 6 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| aff3whale | $263K | +$264K | 79% of 276 |
| GoriIIawhale | $244K | +$542K | 72% of 417 |
| thoodrwhale | $54K | +$91K | 96% of 810 |
| goroviwhale | $22K | +$30K | 93% of 373 |
| 0xcf19…6402whale | $18K | +$173K | 54% of 469 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?
- October 31, 2026$170K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- November 30, 2026$38K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- March 31, 2027$27K vol.Yes 9%No 92%Smart money: No
- September 30, 2026$392K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
Who's betting on Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...? →
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Questions
Who is betting on "Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?"?
875 wallets hold a position worth $785K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 875 of them. The largest Yes holder is neutralwave23, with $3.7K on it, $2.9M lifetime loss over 27,155 markets (72% won). The largest No holder is aff3, with $263K on it, $264K lifetime profit over 276 markets (79% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 6¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $2.4M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
50% of the money on Yes and 96% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 46 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 46 points. A week ago, No by 46 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Is there insider betting on this market?
1 wallet on Yes ($4.7K) match the pattern of insider bets: a fresh or dormant wallet putting a lot on long odds. A flag is a pattern, not proof.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.