Who's betting on “Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before November 30, 2026”?
Politics · $38K volume · Ends December 1, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $38K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 1, 2026.
43% of the money on Yes and 99% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 56 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 35 points. A week ago, No by 22 points.
113 wallets hold a position worth $17K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 112 of them. The largest Yes holder is fledger, with $190 on it, $184 lifetime loss over 30 markets (80% won). The largest No holder is 18in36out, with $8.4K on it, $6.7K lifetime profit over 39 markets (95% won).
- Smart money share
- 43% ▼ 20 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 29
- Money on it
- $551
- Holders' winrate
- 65%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 99%
- Holders
- 84
- Money on it
- $17K
- Holders' winrate
- 84%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| fledger | $190 | -$184 | 80% of 30 |
| LiquidatedDegenwhale | $99 | +$93K | 74% of 1,127 |
| 0x82c8…3f1d | $93 | - | - |
| NoobDogg | $34 | -$209 | 39% of 201 |
| 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495noise | $29 | +$318K | 22% of 11,530 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?
- December 31, 2026$2.4M vol.Yes 6%No 95%Smart money: No
- October 31, 2026$170K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- March 31, 2027$27K vol.Yes 9%No 92%Smart money: No
- September 30, 2026$392K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
Who's betting on Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...? →
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Questions
Who is betting on "Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before November 30, 2026"?
113 wallets hold a position worth $17K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 112 of them. The largest Yes holder is fledger, with $190 on it, $184 lifetime loss over 30 markets (80% won). The largest No holder is 18in36out, with $8.4K on it, $6.7K lifetime profit over 39 markets (95% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before November 30, 2026"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $38K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 1, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
43% of the money on Yes and 99% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 56 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 35 points. A week ago, No by 22 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on December 1, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.