Who's betting on “Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?”?
Politics · $3.4M volume · Closed · Updated October 5, 2026
This market closed on October 5, 2026 and resolved No. $3.4M has been traded on it.
53% of the money on Yes and 86% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 33 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 9 points. A week ago, No by 33 points.
1,132 wallets hold a position worth $1.3M in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,007 of them.
- Smart money share
- 53% ▲ 3 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 858
- Money on it
- $944
- Holders' winrate
- 60%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 86% ▲ 27 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 274
- Money on it
- $1.3M
- Holders' winrate
- 64%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner
- Flavio Bolsonaro$2.6M vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money split
- Hertz Dias$13K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money split
- Veterinário Wilson Grassi$10K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money split
- Samara$10K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money split
- Edmilson Costa$10K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money split
Who's betting on Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner →
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$75M vol.Yes 21%No 80%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?"?
1,132 wallets hold a position worth $1.3M in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,007 of them.
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?"?
This market closed on October 5, 2026 and resolved No. $3.4M has been traded on it.
Which side is the smart money on?
53% of the money on Yes and 86% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 33 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 9 points. A week ago, No by 33 points.
When does this market end?
This market closed on October 5, 2026 and resolved No. $3.4M has been traded on it.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.