Who's betting on “Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?”?
Politics · $779K volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 9¢ and No at 92¢, a 92% implied chance of No. $779K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
59% of the money on Yes and 55% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 16 points. A week ago, Yes by 15 points.
513 wallets hold a position worth $88K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 512 of them. The largest Yes holder is cowcat, with $1.6K on it, $45K lifetime profit over 1,058 markets (68% won). The largest No holder is 0xcCa90A5D3C8F2d6663817E3650D6aDbe9aB44C9f-1772395966516, with $27K on it, $5.5K lifetime loss over 192 markets (68% won).
- Smart money share
- 59% ▼ 5 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 293
- Money on it
- $7.4K
- Holders' winrate
- 60%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 55% ▲ 8 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 220
- Money on it
- $80K
- Holders' winrate
- 73%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| cowcatwhale | $1.6K | +$45K | 68% of 1,058 |
| TOPO85 | $977 | -$13K | 60% of 45 |
| Intern. | $622 | -$34K | 57% of 207 |
| 0x4e25…d7a7whale | $585 | +$252K | 59% of 1,000 |
| 0xb74b9503d71AB2771CF6D86c84C53141bb10b853-1779492342210 | $411 | -$1.6K | 32% of 117 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xcCa90A5D3C8F2d6663817E3650D6aDbe9aB44C9f-1772395966516 | $27K | -$5.5K | 68% of 192 |
| nedstawhale | $9.2K | +$25K | 88% of 465 |
| Ajjoolibalanced | $6.9K | +$5.2K | 67% of 302 |
| hammerdream | $4.9K | +$5.3K | 0% of 1 |
| skibabibawhale | $3.5K | +$15K | 91% of 107 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?"?
513 wallets hold a position worth $88K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 512 of them. The largest Yes holder is cowcat, with $1.6K on it, $45K lifetime profit over 1,058 markets (68% won). The largest No holder is 0xcCa90A5D3C8F2d6663817E3650D6aDbe9aB44C9f-1772395966516, with $27K on it, $5.5K lifetime loss over 192 markets (68% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 9¢ and No at 92¢, a 92% implied chance of No. $779K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
59% of the money on Yes and 55% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 16 points. A week ago, Yes by 15 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.