Who's betting on “Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?”?
Politics · $1.1M volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 14¢ and No at 87¢, an 87% implied chance of No. $1.1M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
88% of the money on Yes and 80% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 9 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 9 points. A week ago it was split.
461 wallets hold a position worth $391K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 460 of them. The largest Yes holder is elPolloLoco, with $38K on it, $596K lifetime profit over 1,138 markets (71% won). The largest No holder is hopedieslast, with $77K on it, $260K lifetime profit over 233 markets (61% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $1.3K on No.
- Smart money share
- 88%
- Holders
- 204
- Money on it
- $53K
- Holders' winrate
- 69%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 80%
- Holders
- 257
- Money on it
- $338K
- Holders' winrate
- 65%
- Snipers
- 1 · $1.3K
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| elPolloLocowhale | $38K | +$596K | 71% of 1,138 |
| CryptoGobalanced | $3.0K | +$3.8K | 71% of 103 |
| vk7 | $1.7K | -$66K | 48% of 25 |
| BurGive | $1.2K | +$840 | 100% of 2 |
| 0xcc09…1442 | $996 | +$221 | 33% of 3 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| hopedieslastwhale | $77K | +$260K | 61% of 233 |
| KrackenSrusterwhale | $48K | +$273K | 66% of 904 |
| JoeBlack01whale | $39K | +$89K | 65% of 1,022 |
| DumplingBMFwhale | $19K | +$285K | 69% of 1,215 |
| MonacoLover | $16K | -$49K | 67% of 114 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?
- October 31$90K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- June 30, 2027$77K vol.Yes 59%No 42%Smart money: No
- March 31, 2027$35K vol.Yes 36%No 64%Smart money: No
- September 30$270K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
Who's betting on Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...? →
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?"?
461 wallets hold a position worth $391K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 460 of them. The largest Yes holder is elPolloLoco, with $38K on it, $596K lifetime profit over 1,138 markets (71% won). The largest No holder is hopedieslast, with $77K on it, $260K lifetime profit over 233 markets (61% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 14¢ and No at 87¢, an 87% implied chance of No. $1.1M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
88% of the money on Yes and 80% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 9 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 9 points. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.