Who's betting on “Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?”?
Politics · $35K volume · Ends April 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 36¢ and No at 64¢, a 64% implied chance of No. $35K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on April 1, 2027.
81% of the money on Yes and 89% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 8 points. A day ago it was split. A week ago, No by 62 points.
76 wallets hold a position worth $20K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 75 of them. The largest Yes holder is elPolloLoco, with $3.4K on it, $598K lifetime profit over 1,144 markets (71% won). The largest No holder is Gladius7, with $4.6K on it, $32K lifetime profit over 235 markets (66% won).
- Smart money share
- 81% ▼ 6 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 29
- Money on it
- $7.0K
- Holders' winrate
- 69%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 89% ▲ 2 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 47
- Money on it
- $13K
- Holders' winrate
- 67%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| elPolloLocowhale | $3.4K | +$598K | 71% of 1,144 |
| BurGive | $1.1K | +$840 | 100% of 2 |
| nero2589 | $957 | -$49K | 82% of 207 |
| mehanizatornoise | $396 | +$6.2K | 43% of 498 |
| Rybkaoibalanced | $286 | +$12K | 64% of 231 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gladius7balanced | $4.6K | +$32K | 66% of 235 |
| 0xB7C185aF4c49541326bA71B4Bfe4844144fc675E-1764804714515balanced | $2.6K | +$6.8K | 70% of 140 |
| alwaysOnwhale | $1.8K | +$28K | 75% of 1,020 |
| KrackenSrusterwhale | $960 | +$273K | 66% of 904 |
| anotherpatrick | $916 | -$347 | 71% of 119 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?
- December 31$1.1M vol.Yes 14%No 87%Smart money: Yes
- October 31$90K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- June 30, 2027$77K vol.Yes 59%No 42%Smart money: No
- September 30$270K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
Who's betting on Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...? →
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?"?
76 wallets hold a position worth $20K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 75 of them. The largest Yes holder is elPolloLoco, with $3.4K on it, $598K lifetime profit over 1,144 markets (71% won). The largest No holder is Gladius7, with $4.6K on it, $32K lifetime profit over 235 markets (66% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 36¢ and No at 64¢, a 64% implied chance of No. $35K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on April 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
81% of the money on Yes and 89% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 8 points. A day ago it was split. A week ago, No by 62 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on April 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.