Who's betting on “Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2027?”?
Politics · $77K volume · Ends July 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 59¢ and No at 42¢, a 59% implied chance of Yes. $77K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on July 1, 2027.
21% of the money on Yes and 28% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 7 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 7 points. A week ago, No by 8 points.
45 wallets hold a position worth $5.6K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 45 of them. The largest Yes holder is nero2589, with $2.3K on it, $49K lifetime loss over 207 markets (82% won). The largest No holder is anotherpatrick, with $1.5K on it, $347 lifetime loss over 119 markets (71% won).
- Smart money share
- 21% ▼ 1 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 14
- Money on it
- $3.3K
- Holders' winrate
- 77%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 28%
- Holders
- 31
- Money on it
- $2.3K
- Holders' winrate
- 65%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| nero2589 | $2.3K | -$49K | 82% of 207 |
| TralaleloTralalalabalanced | $229 | +$41K | 62% of 807 |
| JJJAYbalanced | $188 | +$5.2K | 59% of 229 |
| fakwar | $140 | -$3.7K | 53% of 102 |
| -BOB- | $115 | +$459 | 100% of 8 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| anotherpatrick | $1.5K | -$347 | 71% of 119 |
| rontro28noise | $178 | +$6.5K | 37% of 230 |
| Porxwhale | $162 | +$106K | 84% of 371 |
| 0x279C5de35108AFC30b99f09e595555B428E92b82-1777882786715whale | $84 | +$5.5K | 56% of 331 |
| B1zz | $74 | -$1.2K | 77% of 13 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?
- December 31$1.1M vol.Yes 14%No 87%Smart money: Yes
- October 31$90K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- March 31, 2027$35K vol.Yes 36%No 64%Smart money: No
- September 30$270K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
Who's betting on Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...? →
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2027?"?
45 wallets hold a position worth $5.6K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 45 of them. The largest Yes holder is nero2589, with $2.3K on it, $49K lifetime loss over 207 markets (82% won). The largest No holder is anotherpatrick, with $1.5K on it, $347 lifetime loss over 119 markets (71% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 59¢ and No at 42¢, a 59% implied chance of Yes. $77K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on July 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
21% of the money on Yes and 28% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 7 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 7 points. A week ago, No by 8 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on July 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.