Who's betting on “Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?”?
Politics · $90K volume · Ends November 1, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $90K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
78% of the money on Yes and 93% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 15 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 15 points. A week ago, No by 10 points.
103 wallets hold a position worth $24K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 103 of them. The largest Yes holder is bipbipbop, with $83 on it, $107K lifetime profit over 1,646 markets (51% won). The largest No holder is hopedieslast, with $13K on it, $260K lifetime profit over 233 markets (61% won).
- Smart money share
- 78%
- Holders
- 51
- Money on it
- $249
- Holders' winrate
- 57%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 93%
- Holders
- 52
- Money on it
- $23K
- Holders' winrate
- 69%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| bipbipbopwhale | $83 | +$107K | 51% of 1,646 |
| nicolasGurrbalanced | $80 | +$3.3K | 68% of 229 |
| MrBlackistone | $17 | -$427 | - |
| 0x1AC6b3153F79F907F00D4042B66ee59dE78EB2Ed-1770901895529 | $12 | -$411 | 61% of 145 |
| 0xf825…2e2b | $6 | +$144 | 13% of 8 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| hopedieslastwhale | $13K | +$260K | 61% of 233 |
| 0xef97…ab2c | $2.7K | +$568 | 95% of 19 |
| bifurcatiobalanced | $960 | +$466 | 76% of 114 |
| DumbOraclebalanced | $792 | +$4.5K | 75% of 255 |
| iuH1398SI | $712 | -$16K | 74% of 373 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?
- December 31$1.1M vol.Yes 14%No 87%Smart money: Yes
- June 30, 2027$77K vol.Yes 59%No 42%Smart money: No
- March 31, 2027$35K vol.Yes 36%No 64%Smart money: No
- September 30$270K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
Who's betting on Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...? →
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?"?
103 wallets hold a position worth $24K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 103 of them. The largest Yes holder is bipbipbop, with $83 on it, $107K lifetime profit over 1,646 markets (51% won). The largest No holder is hopedieslast, with $13K on it, $260K lifetime profit over 233 markets (61% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $90K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
78% of the money on Yes and 93% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 15 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 15 points. A week ago, No by 10 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 1, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.