Who's betting on “Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?”?
Politics · $481K volume · Ends November 4, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 71¢ and No at 30¢, a 71% implied chance of Yes. $481K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
34% of the money on Yes and 76% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 42 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 35 points. A week ago, No by 34 points.
387 wallets hold a position worth $193K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 382 of them. The largest Yes holder is nfadyor, with $43K on it, $0 lifetime profit. The largest No holder is wan123, with $9.2K on it, $1.2M lifetime profit over 273 markets (79% won).
2 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $4 on No.
- Smart money share
- 34% ▼ 2 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 226
- Money on it
- $162K
- Holders' winrate
- 71%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 76% ▲ 5 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 161
- Money on it
- $31K
- Holders' winrate
- 65%
- Snipers
- 2 · $4
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| nfadyor | $43K | +$0 | - |
| NotHarrisonHohman | $22K | +$2.6K | 86% of 7 |
| uponlyyy | $21K | +$0 | - |
| Thatboi | $16K | -$25K | 67% of 18 |
| maxwell3 | $5.7K | -$1.8K | 65% of 55 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| wan123whale | $9.2K | +$1.2M | 79% of 273 |
| Humble-Monkwhale | $4.0K | +$50K | 44% of 917 |
| HD45 | $3.1K | -$8.1K | 88% of 17 |
| AnonymousUsernamewhale | $1.9K | +$350K | 70% of 5,075 |
| operationcastlewhale | $1.5K | +$545K | 49% of 1,002 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?"?
387 wallets hold a position worth $193K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 382 of them. The largest Yes holder is nfadyor, with $43K on it, $0 lifetime profit. The largest No holder is wan123, with $9.2K on it, $1.2M lifetime profit over 273 markets (79% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 71¢ and No at 30¢, a 71% implied chance of Yes. $481K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
34% of the money on Yes and 76% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 42 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 35 points. A week ago, No by 34 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.