Who's betting on “US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?”?
Politics · $644K volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 4¢ and No at 96¢, a 96% implied chance of No. $644K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
47% of the money on Yes and 81% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 34 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 34 points. A week ago, No by 33 points.
570 wallets hold a position worth $121K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 569 of them. The largest Yes holder is final-divination, with $887 on it, $656 lifetime loss over 6 markets (67% won). The largest No holder is MEPP, with $23K on it, $553K lifetime profit over 1,070 markets (62% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $33 on No.
- Smart money share
- 47%
- Holders
- 244
- Money on it
- $4.4K
- Holders' winrate
- 61%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 81%
- Holders
- 326
- Money on it
- $117K
- Holders' winrate
- 71%
- Snipers
- 1 · $33
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| final-divination | $887 | -$656 | 67% of 6 |
| ded-ind-emp-seer | $416 | +$2.2K | 100% of 3 |
| 0xab0C4B39397B6F2Bd6ed81a936399f0da95e2cA3-1767532072927 | $396 | -$5.3K | 61% of 18 |
| door-negaah | $379 | +$2.8K | 100% of 3 |
| hol-div | $241 | +$1.7K | 100% of 2 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| MEPPwhale | $23K | +$553K | 62% of 1,070 |
| AngryRhinowhale | $14K | +$25K | 78% of 226 |
| enrico-vasaiowhale | $5.9K | +$24K | 65% of 1,061 |
| Gdub | $5.8K | -$3.1K | 70% of 1,003 |
| Extra-Large-Begonia | $5.7K | -$405K | 94% of 622 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?"?
570 wallets hold a position worth $121K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 569 of them. The largest Yes holder is final-divination, with $887 on it, $656 lifetime loss over 6 markets (67% won). The largest No holder is MEPP, with $23K on it, $553K lifetime profit over 1,070 markets (62% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 4¢ and No at 96¢, a 96% implied chance of No. $644K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
47% of the money on Yes and 81% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 34 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 34 points. A week ago, No by 33 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.