Who's betting on “Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?”?
Politics · $200K volume · Ends October 28, 2026 · Updated October 25, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 24¢ and No at 77¢, a 77% implied chance of No. $200K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 28, 2026.
60% of the money on Yes and 58% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago, Yes by 11 points.
334 wallets hold a position worth $80K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 323 of them. The largest Yes holder is mr.ozi, with $5.3K on it, $763K lifetime profit over 1,071 markets (65% won). The largest No holder is 0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960, with $14K on it, $98K lifetime profit over 380 markets (64% won).
- Smart money share
- 60% ▼ 4 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 215
- Money on it
- $36K
- Holders' winrate
- 65%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 58% ▼ 2 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 119
- Money on it
- $44K
- Holders' winrate
- 65%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| mr.oziwhale | $5.3K | +$763K | 65% of 1,071 |
| 0x770d…dba7 | $5.1K | -$0 | - |
| flawfencewhale | $4.9K | +$477K | 75% of 478 |
| anoin123 | $4.4K | -$4.9M | 60% of 1,429 |
| RememberAmalekwhale | $2.4K | +$837K | 73% of 1,102 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960whale | $14K | +$98K | 64% of 380 |
| 0xa0Fef8192CD2159eD8d337EcD2800E21B3c0C211-1782111832778 | $4.4K | -$488 | 50% of 2 |
| Eladyitshaki | $3.1K | -$1.1K | 61% of 28 |
| elexsanderMoc | $2.4K | -$58 | 60% of 30 |
| nope3050balanced | $2.3K | +$850 | 61% of 149 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?"?
334 wallets hold a position worth $80K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 323 of them. The largest Yes holder is mr.ozi, with $5.3K on it, $763K lifetime profit over 1,071 markets (65% won). The largest No holder is 0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960, with $14K on it, $98K lifetime profit over 380 markets (64% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 24¢ and No at 77¢, a 77% implied chance of No. $200K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 28, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
60% of the money on Yes and 58% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago, Yes by 11 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on October 28, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.