Who's betting on “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?”?
Politics · $980K volume · Ends December 1, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 6¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $980K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 1, 2026.
75% of the money on Yes and 83% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 9 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 9 points. A week ago, No by 17 points.
365 wallets hold a position worth $362K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 365 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x25db6cA5935ae858A5c1F2dCD5c62939805328dE-1770665598557, with $4.0K on it, $50K lifetime loss over 421 markets (58% won). The largest No holder is The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA, with $110K on it, $1.8M lifetime profit over 1,104 markets (69% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $1.9K on No.
- Smart money share
- 75%
- Holders
- 156
- Money on it
- $20K
- Holders' winrate
- 65%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 83%
- Holders
- 209
- Money on it
- $342K
- Holders' winrate
- 68%
- Snipers
- 1 · $1.9K
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x25db6cA5935ae858A5c1F2dCD5c62939805328dE-1770665598557 | $4.0K | -$50K | 58% of 421 |
| BrightStarswhale | $3.9K | +$348K | 78% of 277 |
| RememberAmalekwhale | $3.3K | +$837K | 73% of 1,102 |
| tony1234567 | $606 | +$85 | 100% of 1 |
| tajirbalanced | $550 | +$28K | 49% of 181 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Spirit of Ukraine>UMAwhale | $110K | +$1.8M | 69% of 1,104 |
| Jdsadswhale | $21K | +$8.9K | 76% of 115 |
| timmythewhalewhale | $19K | +$127K | 82% of 28 |
| DonaldinhoTrumpito | $19K | -$329K | 37% of 1,004 |
| 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938noise | $18K | +$105K | 38% of 6,018 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?"?
365 wallets hold a position worth $362K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 365 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x25db6cA5935ae858A5c1F2dCD5c62939805328dE-1770665598557, with $4.0K on it, $50K lifetime loss over 421 markets (58% won). The largest No holder is The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA, with $110K on it, $1.8M lifetime profit over 1,104 markets (69% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 6¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $980K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 1, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
75% of the money on Yes and 83% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 9 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 9 points. A week ago, No by 17 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on December 1, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.