Who's betting on “Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?”?
Politics · $650K volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 4¢ and No at 96¢, a 96% implied chance of No. $650K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
28% of the money on Yes and 64% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 36 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 37 points. A week ago, No by 36 points.
584 wallets hold a position worth $172K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 583 of them. The largest Yes holder is Eyes111, with $1.5K on it, $0 lifetime profit. The largest No holder is momom, with $26K on it, $98K lifetime profit over 43 markets (98% won).
3 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $9.2K on No.
- Smart money share
- 28%
- Holders
- 223
- Money on it
- $6.4K
- Holders' winrate
- 49%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 64%
- Holders
- 361
- Money on it
- $165K
- Holders' winrate
- 84%
- Snipers
- 3 · $9.2K
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eyes111 | $1.5K | +$0 | - |
| 0x898AE0Ca4A7A4C8166f3d8Ecc3A3b47ef0dcE290-1767860882323 | $1.1K | +$2.6K | 100% of 1 |
| wer23567 | $690 | +$0 | - |
| bnetopt | $563 | -$39K | 38% of 227 |
| 0x24CdA331801f07E9FbBdA28D99a1bc5C03f2C654-1720939720847 | $368 | -$58 | 37% of 38 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| momomwhale | $26K | +$98K | 98% of 43 |
| alihanyerwhale | $19K | +$1.4K | 69% of 1,035 |
| 0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952 | $9.6K | -$160K | 83% of 887 |
| Scoofy-Bubik | $9.6K | -$221 | 96% of 81 |
| Go3ami2g | $8.5K | -$743 | 100% of 23 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?"?
584 wallets hold a position worth $172K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 583 of them. The largest Yes holder is Eyes111, with $1.5K on it, $0 lifetime profit. The largest No holder is momom, with $26K on it, $98K lifetime profit over 43 markets (98% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 4¢ and No at 96¢, a 96% implied chance of No. $650K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
28% of the money on Yes and 64% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 36 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 37 points. A week ago, No by 36 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.