Who's betting on “Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?”?
Politics · $1.1M volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 21¢ and No at 80¢, an 80% implied chance of No. $1.1M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
82% of the money on Yes and 94% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 12 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 12 points. A week ago, No by 10 points.
367 wallets hold a position worth $343K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 367 of them. The largest Yes holder is tetrose, with $18K on it, $210K lifetime profit over 565 markets (55% won). The largest No holder is ImJustKen, with $94K on it, $2.3M lifetime profit over 1,065 markets (65% won).
2 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $3.3K on Yes.
- Smart money share
- 82%
- Holders
- 158
- Money on it
- $70K
- Holders' winrate
- 59%
- Snipers
- 2 · $3.3K
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 94%
- Holders
- 209
- Money on it
- $272K
- Holders' winrate
- 73%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| tetrosewhale | $18K | +$210K | 55% of 565 |
| Arbguywhale | $10K | +$498K | 45% of 1,011 |
| Erasmus.whale | $7.6K | +$204K | 70% of 828 |
| 0x7444ff7E6a189d29524Fd11aC39462aF212eee2E-1783612204097 | $7.4K | -$24K | 0% of 2 |
| Giannis2026sniper | $3.1K | +$59K | 86% of 224 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| ImJustKenwhale | $94K | +$2.3M | 65% of 1,065 |
| thoodrwhale | $37K | +$91K | 96% of 810 |
| zthunderfurywhale | $23K | +$31K | 67% of 516 |
| elmcap2whale | $19K | +$2.1M | 86% of 1,083 |
| forever123balanced | $11K | +$973 | 61% of 61 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?
- June 30, 2027$158K vol.Yes 41%No 60%Smart money: Yes
- September 30$1.5M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
Who's betting on Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...? →
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?"?
367 wallets hold a position worth $343K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 367 of them. The largest Yes holder is tetrose, with $18K on it, $210K lifetime profit over 565 markets (55% won). The largest No holder is ImJustKen, with $94K on it, $2.3M lifetime profit over 1,065 markets (65% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 21¢ and No at 80¢, an 80% implied chance of No. $1.1M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
82% of the money on Yes and 94% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 12 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 12 points. A week ago, No by 10 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.