Who's betting on “US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?”?
Politics · $455K volume · Ends October 31, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 93¢ and No at 8¢, a 93% implied chance of Yes. $455K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 31, 2026.
71% of the money on Yes and 74% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it leaned No, by 7 points. A week ago it was split.
344 wallets hold a position worth $100K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 342 of them. The largest Yes holder is BunCaCham, with $14K on it, $167K lifetime loss over 436 markets (85% won). The largest No holder is RememberAmalek, with $1.2K on it, $837K lifetime profit over 1,102 markets (73% won).
- Smart money share
- 71% ▼ 1 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 199
- Money on it
- $92K
- Holders' winrate
- 79%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 74% ▼ 5 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 145
- Money on it
- $8.0K
- Holders' winrate
- 62%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| BunCaCham | $14K | -$167K | 85% of 436 |
| tetrasewhale | $9.9K | +$965K | 65% of 1,185 |
| yen4uwhale | $9.3K | +$66K | 94% of 1,341 |
| LulaVaiPerderwhale | $8.2K | +$507K | 79% of 443 |
| M2sx92kljs42whale | $6.4K | +$63K | 78% of 514 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| RememberAmalekwhale | $1.2K | +$837K | 73% of 1,102 |
| BigRabbitnoise | $804 | +$131K | 37% of 1,058 |
| eCashwhale | $759 | +$273K | 70% of 652 |
| anoin123 | $634 | -$4.9M | 60% of 1,429 |
| 0x7678…22a3balanced | $556 | +$19K | 62% of 163 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?
- October 21$64K vol.Yes 99%No 1%Smart money: Yes
- November 30$24K vol.Yes 77%No 23%Smart money: No
- October 15$1.0M vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- October 12$578K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- October 9$38K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: No
- September 30$32K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- US x Yemen ceasefire continues through September 22?$32K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: No
- October 18$21K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: No
- September 25$10K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: No
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Questions
Who is betting on "US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?"?
344 wallets hold a position worth $100K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 342 of them. The largest Yes holder is BunCaCham, with $14K on it, $167K lifetime loss over 436 markets (85% won). The largest No holder is RememberAmalek, with $1.2K on it, $837K lifetime profit over 1,102 markets (73% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 93¢ and No at 8¢, a 93% implied chance of Yes. $455K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 31, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
71% of the money on Yes and 74% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it leaned No, by 7 points. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on October 31, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.