Who's betting on “Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?”?
Politics · $786K volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 99¢ and No at 1¢, a 99% implied chance of Yes. $786K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
94% of the money on Yes and 15% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 79 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 73 points. A week ago, Yes by 74 points.
422 wallets hold a position worth $414K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 421 of them. The largest Yes holder is elmcap2, with $244K on it, $2.1M lifetime profit over 1,082 markets (86% won). The largest No holder is 0xfcab…3376, with $1.3K on it, $1.6K lifetime loss over 17 markets (6% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $4 on Yes; 1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $17 on No.
- Smart money share
- 94%
- Holders
- 219
- Money on it
- $408K
- Holders' winrate
- 85%
- Snipers
- 1 · $4
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 15% ▼ 5 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 203
- Money on it
- $5.8K
- Holders' winrate
- 31%
- Snipers
- 1 · $17
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| elmcap2whale | $244K | +$2.1M | 86% of 1,082 |
| 0xAD96914D7762DAC84EbBABAfE366AE8ff24Dd49whale | $25K | +$157K | 85% of 105 |
| DFKwhale | $20K | +$41K | 81% of 758 |
| 57284910balanced | $17K | +$2.9K | 88% of 25 |
| wish-whale | $11K | +$74K | 81% of 1,091 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xfcab…3376 | $1.3K | -$1.6K | 6% of 17 |
| HoneybeeAlliance | $724 | -$45K | 0% of 8 |
| Vgsps11 | $595 | -$105K | 57% of 300 |
| macrosteaks | $281 | -$6.8K | 65% of 2,292 |
| Ondrawhale | $279 | +$21K | 62% of 210 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?"?
422 wallets hold a position worth $414K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 421 of them. The largest Yes holder is elmcap2, with $244K on it, $2.1M lifetime profit over 1,082 markets (86% won). The largest No holder is 0xfcab…3376, with $1.3K on it, $1.6K lifetime loss over 17 markets (6% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 99¢ and No at 1¢, a 99% implied chance of Yes. $786K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
94% of the money on Yes and 15% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 79 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 73 points. A week ago, Yes by 74 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.