Who's betting on “Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?”?
Politics · $579K volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 69¢ and No at 31¢, a 69% implied chance of Yes. $579K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
85% of the money on Yes and 98% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 13 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 13 points. A week ago, No by 13 points.
193 wallets hold a position worth $30K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 193 of them. The largest Yes holder is hippoka, with $3.6K on it, $58K lifetime profit over 72 markets (49% won). The largest No holder is tinman2, with $3.3K on it, $12K lifetime profit over 381 markets (79% won).
- Smart money share
- 85%
- Holders
- 121
- Money on it
- $26K
- Holders' winrate
- 63%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 98%
- Holders
- 72
- Money on it
- $3.9K
- Holders' winrate
- 78%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| hippokanoise | $3.6K | +$58K | 49% of 72 |
| DancewithRiskwhale | $3.5K | +$27K | 69% of 317 |
| 0xB16B00B5whale | $2.8K | +$51K | 81% of 314 |
| ratehikesnoise | $1.9K | +$197K | 43% of 44 |
| 0xeBABa6D3C08C5FfF3d444cE0F751E6D97F15CFf5-1779341123078balanced | $1.4K | +$3.9K | 71% of 85 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| tinman2whale | $3.3K | +$12K | 79% of 381 |
| Bobothebearwhale | $80 | +$693 | 72% of 198 |
| simplemanwhale | $69 | +$90K | 53% of 1,032 |
| 88mnm88whale | $34 | +$12K | 100% of 214 |
| michaelmunoz | $26 | -$23 | 76% of 85 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
- ≥ 4.5%$2.4M vol.Yes 9%No 91%Smart money: Yes
- 4.0%$1.4M vol.Yes 19%No 81%Smart money split
- 3.75%$541K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- 3.0%$504K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- ≤1.0%$277K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- 2.0%$272K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- 3.5%$209K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- 2.5%$187K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- 1.75%$156K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- 1.25$156K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- 1.5%$153K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- 2.25%$96K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- 3.25%$88K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- 2.75%$75K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Who's betting on What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026? →
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?"?
193 wallets hold a position worth $30K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 193 of them. The largest Yes holder is hippoka, with $3.6K on it, $58K lifetime profit over 72 markets (49% won). The largest No holder is tinman2, with $3.3K on it, $12K lifetime profit over 381 markets (79% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 69¢ and No at 31¢, a 69% implied chance of Yes. $579K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
85% of the money on Yes and 98% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 13 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 13 points. A week ago, No by 13 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.