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Who's betting on “Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.5% at the end of 2026?”?

Politics · $187K volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026

Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $187K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.

79% of the money on Yes and 33% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 46 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 46 points. A week ago, Yes by 8 points.

100 wallets hold a position worth $171 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 100 of them. The largest Yes holder is fiter, with $20 on it, $46K lifetime profit over 769 markets (16% won). The largest No holder is cigarettes, with $40 on it, $4.2K lifetime loss over 42,466 markets (46% won).

Yes0%
Smart money leans here
Smart money share
79%
Holders
86
Money on it
$63
Holders' winrate
34%
Snipers
0
Insider flags
0
No100%
Smart money share
33%
Holders
14
Money on it
$108
Holders' winrate
63%
Snipers
0
Insider flags
0

The biggest holders on each side

Yes
TraderPositionLifetime P&LWon
fiternoise$20+$46K16% of 769
125-kooyanisqatsi$8+$8775% of 4
xvsp$5-$3.2K46% of 200
Nadminoise$4+$147K34% of 1,203
acc42020whale$3+$12K49% of 819
No
TraderPositionLifetime P&LWon
cigarettes$40-$4.2K46% of 42,466
Elias.Thornwellwhale$34+$4.5K69% of 2,940
FlashTradeOracleTester$23-$3.0K88% of 243
daniel122134$9-$10K47% of 3,367
0x539b…c64fgrinder$1+$7799% of 506
Every holder, the full history, and alerts when the smart money moves

Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.

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Questions

Who is betting on "Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.5% at the end of 2026?"?

100 wallets hold a position worth $171 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 100 of them. The largest Yes holder is fiter, with $20 on it, $46K lifetime profit over 769 markets (16% won). The largest No holder is cigarettes, with $40 on it, $4.2K lifetime loss over 42,466 markets (46% won).

What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.5% at the end of 2026?"?

Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $187K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.

Which side is the smart money on?

79% of the money on Yes and 33% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 46 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 46 points. A week ago, Yes by 8 points.

When does this market end?

It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.

Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.

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