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Who's betting on “Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?”?

Politics · $209K volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026

Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $209K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.

49% of the money on Yes and 92% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 42 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 42 points. A week ago, No by 44 points.

118 wallets hold a position worth $2.1K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 118 of them. The largest Yes holder is DenisBr, with $149 on it, $1.2K lifetime loss over 1 markets (0% won). The largest No holder is newnewuser, with $904 on it, $37K lifetime profit over 259 markets (56% won).

Yes1%
Smart money share
49%
Holders
85
Money on it
$360
Holders' winrate
62%
Snipers
0
Insider flags
0
No99%
Smart money leans here
Smart money share
92%
Holders
33
Money on it
$1.8K
Holders' winrate
58%
Snipers
0
Insider flags
0

The biggest holders on each side

Yes
TraderPositionLifetime P&LWon
DenisBr$149-$1.2K0% of 1
125-kooyanisqatsi$48+$8775% of 4
hippokanoise$42+$58K49% of 72
rousseauuuwhale$26+$23K79% of 156
GamblingEnjoyer$18-$6477% of 87
No
TraderPositionLifetime P&LWon
newnewuserwhale$904+$37K56% of 259
forgetfuldory$320+$21K46% of 13
tttt123whale$197+$14K74% of 212
5atkawhale$154+$10.0K59% of 224
konchelyga007$57-$3.2K81% of 32
Every holder, the full history, and alerts when the smart money moves

Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.

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Questions

Who is betting on "Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?"?

118 wallets hold a position worth $2.1K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 118 of them. The largest Yes holder is DenisBr, with $149 on it, $1.2K lifetime loss over 1 markets (0% won). The largest No holder is newnewuser, with $904 on it, $37K lifetime profit over 259 markets (56% won).

What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?"?

Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $209K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.

Which side is the smart money on?

49% of the money on Yes and 92% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 42 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 42 points. A week ago, No by 44 points.

When does this market end?

It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.

Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.

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