Who's betting on “Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?”?
Politics · $2.4M volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 9¢ and No at 91¢, a 91% implied chance of No. $2.4M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
89% of the money on Yes and 76% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 13 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 12 points. A week ago, Yes by 7 points.
316 wallets hold a position worth $5.0K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 316 of them. The largest Yes holder is hippoka, with $574 on it, $58K lifetime profit over 72 markets (49% won). The largest No holder is podairpod, with $562 on it, $29K lifetime profit over 799 markets (60% won).
- Smart money share
- 89%
- Holders
- 181
- Money on it
- $2.5K
- Holders' winrate
- 56%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 76%
- Holders
- 135
- Money on it
- $2.5K
- Holders' winrate
- 69%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| hippokanoise | $574 | +$58K | 49% of 72 |
| ratehikesnoise | $497 | +$197K | 43% of 44 |
| howesr1970 | $247 | +$15K | 89% of 9 |
| 0xeBABa6D3C08C5FfF3d444cE0F751E6D97F15CFf5-1779341123078balanced | $181 | +$3.9K | 71% of 85 |
| PCMTestwhale | $122 | +$13K | 77% of 428 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| podairpodwhale | $562 | +$29K | 60% of 799 |
| 88mnm88whale | $136 | +$12K | 100% of 214 |
| Hugin-og-Muninwhale | $111 | +$22K | 43% of 14,075 |
| acuellarF | $109 | -$39 | 74% of 235 |
| SC261001 | $99 | -$6 | 47% of 192 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
- 4.0%$1.4M vol.Yes 19%No 81%Smart money split
- 4.25%$579K vol.Yes 69%No 31%Smart money: No
- 3.75%$541K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- 3.0%$504K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- ≤1.0%$277K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- 2.0%$272K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- 3.5%$209K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- 2.5%$187K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- 1.75%$156K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- 1.25$156K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- 1.5%$153K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- 2.25%$96K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- 3.25%$88K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- 2.75%$75K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Who's betting on What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026? →
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$75M vol.Yes 21%No 80%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?"?
316 wallets hold a position worth $5.0K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 316 of them. The largest Yes holder is hippoka, with $574 on it, $58K lifetime profit over 72 markets (49% won). The largest No holder is podairpod, with $562 on it, $29K lifetime profit over 799 markets (60% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 9¢ and No at 91¢, a 91% implied chance of No. $2.4M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
89% of the money on Yes and 76% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 13 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 12 points. A week ago, Yes by 7 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.