Who's betting on “Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?”?
Politics · $1.4M volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 19¢ and No at 81¢, an 81% implied chance of No. $1.4M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
81% of the money on Yes and 80% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago, No by 6 points.
224 wallets hold a position worth $5.6K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 224 of them. The largest Yes holder is ratehikes, with $898 on it, $197K lifetime profit over 44 markets (43% won). The largest No holder is 0x1308…45c6, with $190 on it, $2.3K lifetime profit over 148 markets (74% won).
- Smart money share
- 81%
- Holders
- 150
- Money on it
- $4.9K
- Holders' winrate
- 58%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 80% ▲ 1 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 74
- Money on it
- $731
- Holders' winrate
- 69%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| ratehikesnoise | $898 | +$197K | 43% of 44 |
| CDAP1whale | $723 | +$142K | 77% of 26 |
| akimbogodwhale | $558 | +$29K | 71% of 133 |
| dgprnta | $255 | -$25 | 33% of 3 |
| Deadheadbuckynoise | $200 | +$751 | 29% of 202 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x1308…45c6balanced | $190 | +$2.3K | 74% of 148 |
| melonmanmwhale | $99 | +$51K | 59% of 800 |
| tinman2whale | $72 | +$12K | 79% of 381 |
| 88mnm88whale | $67 | +$12K | 100% of 214 |
| GingerMcKennanoise | $40 | +$39K | 35% of 4,367 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
- ≥ 4.5%$2.4M vol.Yes 9%No 91%Smart money: Yes
- 4.25%$579K vol.Yes 69%No 31%Smart money: No
- 3.75%$541K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- 3.0%$504K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- ≤1.0%$277K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- 2.0%$272K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- 3.5%$209K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- 2.5%$187K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- 1.75%$156K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- 1.25$156K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- 1.5%$153K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- 2.25%$96K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- 3.25%$88K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- 2.75%$75K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Who's betting on What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026? →
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?"?
224 wallets hold a position worth $5.6K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 224 of them. The largest Yes holder is ratehikes, with $898 on it, $197K lifetime profit over 44 markets (43% won). The largest No holder is 0x1308…45c6, with $190 on it, $2.3K lifetime profit over 148 markets (74% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 19¢ and No at 81¢, an 81% implied chance of No. $1.4M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
81% of the money on Yes and 80% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago, No by 6 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.