Who's betting on “Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?”?
Politics · $899K volume · Ends November 1, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $899K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
55% of the money on Yes and 92% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 37 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 37 points. A week ago, No by 35 points.
483 wallets hold a position worth $177K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 482 of them. The largest Yes holder is Iman.abbasi, with $456 on it, $0 lifetime profit. The largest No holder is GoriIIa, with $28K on it, $542K lifetime profit over 417 markets (72% won).
The insider radar has flagged 1 wallet betting $2.1K on Yes.
- Smart money share
- 55%
- Holders
- 290
- Money on it
- $4.0K
- Holders' winrate
- 57%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 1 · $2.1K
- Smart money share
- 92%
- Holders
- 193
- Money on it
- $173K
- Holders' winrate
- 73%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iman.abbasi | $456 | +$0 | - |
| eightpenguinswhale | $425 | +$301K | 72% of 520 |
| 0x6992D56559Dd30b5B5D0F5cA3D5427F9e94e6c1d-1760272837095noise | $324 | +$2.6K | 45% of 293 |
| 881112whale | $268 | +$442K | 60% of 1,101 |
| 0x0c88Fc04Dac8E653AFE679df3dD96Ebf42c77C45-1762355555792 | $249 | -$4.6K | 60% of 42 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| GoriIIawhale | $28K | +$542K | 72% of 417 |
| RememberAmalekwhale | $28K | +$837K | 73% of 1,102 |
| MEPPwhale | $21K | +$553K | 62% of 1,070 |
| scoutwhale | $16K | +$305K | 90% of 1,025 |
| aviatowhale | $12K | +$202K | 81% of 1,237 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?"?
483 wallets hold a position worth $177K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 482 of them. The largest Yes holder is Iman.abbasi, with $456 on it, $0 lifetime profit. The largest No holder is GoriIIa, with $28K on it, $542K lifetime profit over 417 markets (72% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $899K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
55% of the money on Yes and 92% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 37 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 37 points. A week ago, No by 35 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 1, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Is there insider betting on this market?
1 wallet on Yes ($2.1K) match the pattern of insider bets: a fresh or dormant wallet putting a lot on long odds. A flag is a pattern, not proof.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.