Who's betting on “Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?”?
Politics · $624K volume · Ends November 4, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 26¢ and No at 75¢, a 75% implied chance of No. $624K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
79% of the money on Yes and 54% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 26 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 25 points. A week ago, Yes by 26 points.
537 wallets hold a position worth $217K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 530 of them. The largest Yes holder is BreakTheBank, with $34K on it, $9.6M lifetime profit over 604 markets (87% won). The largest No holder is 0xfcb034ffesa540c81ad37321212f6e0c762feac8, with $51K on it, $124K lifetime loss over 93 markets (72% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $128 on Yes.
- Smart money share
- 79% ▲ 1 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 293
- Money on it
- $72K
- Holders' winrate
- 74%
- Snipers
- 1 · $128
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 54%
- Holders
- 244
- Money on it
- $145K
- Holders' winrate
- 71%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| BreakTheBankwhale | $34K | +$9.6M | 87% of 604 |
| ClauseAI | $6.4K | +$0 | - |
| DannyChantomnoise | $2.5K | +$1.9K | 42% of 106 |
| lava-lavawhale | $2.0K | +$995K | 46% of 1,585 |
| Chungvicularnoise | $1.9K | +$34K | 44% of 196 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xfcb034ffesa540c81ad37321212f6e0c762feac8 | $51K | -$124K | 72% of 93 |
| gopfan2whale | $17K | +$1.7M | 79% of 1,012 |
| AllByMyseIfwhale | $8.9K | +$560K | 85% of 1,031 |
| brte | $4.5K | +$5.4K | 88% of 8 |
| mountaindewdwhale | $3.7K | +$150K | 68% of 631 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?"?
537 wallets hold a position worth $217K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 530 of them. The largest Yes holder is BreakTheBank, with $34K on it, $9.6M lifetime profit over 604 markets (87% won). The largest No holder is 0xfcb034ffesa540c81ad37321212f6e0c762feac8, with $51K on it, $124K lifetime loss over 93 markets (72% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 26¢ and No at 75¢, a 75% implied chance of No. $624K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
79% of the money on Yes and 54% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 26 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 25 points. A week ago, Yes by 26 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.