Who's betting on “Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?”?
Politics · $922K volume · Ends November 4, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 75¢ and No at 26¢, a 75% implied chance of Yes. $922K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
82% of the money on Yes and 52% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 30 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 28 points. A week ago, Yes by 34 points.
853 wallets hold a position worth $482K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 848 of them. The largest Yes holder is scottilicious, with $71K on it, $1.5M lifetime profit over 1,009 markets (83% won). The largest No holder is 0xF30F7e57080d333ff35558A78719bea46B7dfa3E-1778956766753, with $40K on it, $0 lifetime profit.
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $39 on Yes; 3 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $248 on No; the insider radar has flagged 1 wallet betting $3.8K on No.
- Smart money share
- 82% ▲ 2 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 597
- Money on it
- $376K
- Holders' winrate
- 74%
- Snipers
- 1 · $39
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 52%
- Holders
- 256
- Money on it
- $106K
- Holders' winrate
- 73%
- Snipers
- 3 · $248
- Insider flags
- 1 · $3.8K
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| scottiliciouswhale | $71K | +$1.5M | 83% of 1,009 |
| SlavaUkrainiwhale | $37K | +$726K | 75% of 288 |
| gopfan2whale | $19K | +$1.7M | 79% of 1,012 |
| PolBanditwhale | $17K | +$24K | 94% of 79 |
| lastminwin | $15K | -$10K | 57% of 7 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xF30F7e57080d333ff35558A78719bea46B7dfa3E-1778956766753 | $40K | +$0 | - |
| BreakTheBankwhale | $20K | +$10M | 87% of 609 |
| wan123whale | $11K | +$1.2M | 79% of 273 |
| 0xdc3E831cadwhale | $4.2K | +$84K | 55% of 1,063 |
| Scalpoorwhale | $3.9K | +$45K | 88% of 49 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?"?
853 wallets hold a position worth $482K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 848 of them. The largest Yes holder is scottilicious, with $71K on it, $1.5M lifetime profit over 1,009 markets (83% won). The largest No holder is 0xF30F7e57080d333ff35558A78719bea46B7dfa3E-1778956766753, with $40K on it, $0 lifetime profit.
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 75¢ and No at 26¢, a 75% implied chance of Yes. $922K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
82% of the money on Yes and 52% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 30 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 28 points. A week ago, Yes by 34 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Is there insider betting on this market?
1 wallet on No ($3.8K) match the pattern of insider bets: a fresh or dormant wallet putting a lot on long odds. A flag is a pattern, not proof.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.