Who's betting on “Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?”?
Politics · $625K volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 12¢ and No at 88¢, an 88% implied chance of No. $625K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
78% of the money on Yes and 93% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 15 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 15 points. A week ago, No by 14 points.
471 wallets hold a position worth $82K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 469 of them. The largest Yes holder is RememberAmalek, with $4.6K on it, $837K lifetime profit over 1,102 markets (73% won). The largest No holder is alwaysOn, with $12K on it, $28K lifetime profit over 1,020 markets (75% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $1 on Yes; 1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $440 on No.
- Smart money share
- 78%
- Holders
- 235
- Money on it
- $9.9K
- Holders' winrate
- 65%
- Snipers
- 1 · $1
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 93%
- Holders
- 236
- Money on it
- $72K
- Holders' winrate
- 71%
- Snipers
- 1 · $440
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| RememberAmalekwhale | $4.6K | +$837K | 73% of 1,102 |
| gods-eyebalanced | $2.0K | +$12K | 59% of 32 |
| jesus911 | $1.2K | -$9.6K | 53% of 120 |
| 0xce5f…1912 | $187 | -$2.1K | 54% of 26 |
| 0xFc2F4f50ce2F6045d35558A5E2D8d4b2aC6610c7-1769097007451whale | $166 | +$194K | 66% of 614 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?"?
471 wallets hold a position worth $82K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 469 of them. The largest Yes holder is RememberAmalek, with $4.6K on it, $837K lifetime profit over 1,102 markets (73% won). The largest No holder is alwaysOn, with $12K on it, $28K lifetime profit over 1,020 markets (75% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 12¢ and No at 88¢, an 88% implied chance of No. $625K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
78% of the money on Yes and 93% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 15 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 15 points. A week ago, No by 14 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.