Who's betting on “Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?”?
Politics · $691K volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 23¢ and No at 78¢, a 78% implied chance of No. $691K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
63% of the money on Yes and 70% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 7 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 6 points. A week ago, No by 5 points.
750 wallets hold a position worth $233K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 745 of them. The largest Yes holder is DirkDiggler67, with $6.7K on it, $133K lifetime profit over 1,060 markets (58% won). The largest No holder is 0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960, with $15K on it, $98K lifetime profit over 380 markets (64% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $0 on Yes; 1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $775 on No.
- Smart money share
- 63%
- Holders
- 391
- Money on it
- $52K
- Holders' winrate
- 63%
- Snipers
- 1 · $0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 70%
- Holders
- 359
- Money on it
- $181K
- Holders' winrate
- 71%
- Snipers
- 1 · $775
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| DirkDiggler67whale | $6.7K | +$133K | 58% of 1,060 |
| Pondermintwhale | $5.5K | +$110K | 60% of 259 |
| peasantwhale | $4.6K | +$93K | 54% of 200 |
| HorribleWork | $4.5K | -$411K | 84% of 216 |
| DaveyP | $3.7K | -$794 | - |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960whale | $15K | +$98K | 64% of 380 |
| 0xff1e352d5310eab17d1e9fd7e00ec33f16c05e2 | $13K | -$5.2K | 97% of 663 |
| Serega-pro | $13K | -$33K | 59% of 735 |
| 0xc615d34879c57eeF6ab81cF8F6e3d239EAe7e982-1768826962316 | $8.6K | +$12K | 59% of 17 |
| M2sx92kljs42whale | $8.1K | +$63K | 78% of 514 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?"?
750 wallets hold a position worth $233K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 745 of them. The largest Yes holder is DirkDiggler67, with $6.7K on it, $133K lifetime profit over 1,060 markets (58% won). The largest No holder is 0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960, with $15K on it, $98K lifetime profit over 380 markets (64% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 23¢ and No at 78¢, a 78% implied chance of No. $691K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
63% of the money on Yes and 70% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 7 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 6 points. A week ago, No by 5 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.