Who's betting on “Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?”?
Politics · $1.3M volume · Ends November 8, 2028 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 35¢ and No at 66¢, a 66% implied chance of No. $1.3M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 8, 2028.
57% of the money on Yes and 71% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 14 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 14 points. A week ago, No by 15 points.
513 wallets hold a position worth $117K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 511 of them. The largest Yes holder is 11122, with $12K on it, $630K lifetime profit over 1,111 markets (42% won). The largest No holder is Brokie, with $10K on it, $180K lifetime profit over 906 markets (59% won).
- Smart money share
- 57%
- Holders
- 352
- Money on it
- $68K
- Holders' winrate
- 58%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 71%
- Holders
- 161
- Money on it
- $49K
- Holders' winrate
- 55%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11122noise | $12K | +$630K | 42% of 1,111 |
| pizzabillgates | $7.7K | +$75K | 81% of 16 |
| ASteroide | $6.6K | -$18K | 63% of 1,005 |
| varch01 | $3.4K | -$44K | 69% of 1,121 |
| eparostaf2 | $3.1K | +$0 | - |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brokiewhale | $10K | +$180K | 59% of 906 |
| ddalkkakwhale | $7.0K | +$105K | 50% of 582 |
| rdbawhale | $4.1K | +$485K | 71% of 248 |
| TheRedChipwhale | $2.2K | +$94K | 66% of 200 |
| 0x5b78…e92c | $2.2K | -$59 | 33% of 3 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?"?
513 wallets hold a position worth $117K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 511 of them. The largest Yes holder is 11122, with $12K on it, $630K lifetime profit over 1,111 markets (42% won). The largest No holder is Brokie, with $10K on it, $180K lifetime profit over 906 markets (59% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 35¢ and No at 66¢, a 66% implied chance of No. $1.3M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 8, 2028.
Which side is the smart money on?
57% of the money on Yes and 71% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 14 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 14 points. A week ago, No by 15 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 8, 2028. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.