Who's betting on “US strike on Mexico by December 31?”?
Politics · $770K volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 4¢ and No at 96¢, a 96% implied chance of No. $770K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
50% of the money on Yes and 84% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 34 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 34 points. A week ago, No by 31 points.
546 wallets hold a position worth $113K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 545 of them. The largest Yes holder is LongShortNeutral, with $330 on it, $19K lifetime loss over 13 markets (69% won). The largest No holder is Jan777, with $28K on it, $74K lifetime profit over 150 markets (95% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $74 on Yes; 1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $4.6K on No.
- Smart money share
- 50%
- Holders
- 299
- Money on it
- $4.2K
- Holders' winrate
- 52%
- Snipers
- 1 · $74
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 84%
- Holders
- 247
- Money on it
- $109K
- Holders' winrate
- 88%
- Snipers
- 1 · $4.6K
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| LongShortNeutral | $330 | -$19K | 69% of 13 |
| yoshi92noise | $314 | +$15K | 21% of 29 |
| 0x75d1B199a96801338e67a6eFAa35C0028eA87A5F-1770658242710whale | $225 | +$100K | 60% of 1,453 |
| 0xA97e43Db0a4A6007899abf75817c452d5a7224ff-1738522326367 | $213 | -$2.1K | 14% of 200 |
| 0xC21e1344E89218Db6C082F27602BEA93d272442b-1772242630805 | $187 | +$289 | 100% of 2 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "US strike on Mexico by December 31?"?
546 wallets hold a position worth $113K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 545 of them. The largest Yes holder is LongShortNeutral, with $330 on it, $19K lifetime loss over 13 markets (69% won). The largest No holder is Jan777, with $28K on it, $74K lifetime profit over 150 markets (95% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "US strike on Mexico by December 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 4¢ and No at 96¢, a 96% implied chance of No. $770K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
50% of the money on Yes and 84% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 34 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 34 points. A week ago, No by 31 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.