Who's betting on “Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?”?
Politics · $500K volume · Ends April 1, 2028 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 15¢ and No at 85¢, an 85% implied chance of No. $500K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on April 1, 2028.
42% of the money on Yes and 42% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago, No by 20 points.
433 wallets hold a position worth $151K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 427 of them. The largest Yes holder is presspablo, with $4.8K on it, $4.0K lifetime profit over 20 markets (65% won). The largest No holder is 0x766d95f30cF841f4870804B7384e692Bd9F210dE-1773682612928, with $27K on it, $1.2K lifetime profit over 2 markets (100% won).
The insider radar has flagged 2 wallets betting $5.3K on Yes.
- Smart money share
- 42% ▲ 1 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 300
- Money on it
- $42K
- Holders' winrate
- 61%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 2 · $5.3K
- Smart money share
- 42%
- Holders
- 133
- Money on it
- $109K
- Holders' winrate
- 71%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| presspablobalanced | $4.8K | +$4.0K | 65% of 20 |
| 0x98fe…ea1e | $4.3K | +$122 | 100% of 1 |
| superuser855 | $3.7K | +$0 | - |
| antrax | $3.5K | -$7.2K | 67% of 190 |
| SaganArb | $2.8K | +$0 | - |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x766d95f30cF841f4870804B7384e692Bd9F210dE-1773682612928 | $27K | +$1.2K | 100% of 2 |
| Gurupolimarket | $25K | -$4.2K | 77% of 564 |
| Batundi | $19K | -$138K | 82% of 172 |
| xthype | $7.3K | -$3.4K | 55% of 33 |
| 0x5b91…2709whale | $5.9K | +$49K | 76% of 1,022 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Next Prime Minister of Spain?
- Alberto Núñez Feijóo$431K vol.Yes 82%No 18%Smart money: Yes
- Santiago Abascal$286K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Isabel Díaz Ayuso$251K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Carlos Cuerpo$203K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Yolanda Díaz$174K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Óscar Puente$76K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- María Jesús Montero$35K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Miguel Tellado$24K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Carles Puigdemont$20K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Ester Muñoz$17K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Cuca Gamarra$17K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Borja Sémper$16K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Pepa Millán$16K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Ernest Urtasun$16K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Aitor Esteban$15K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$75M vol.Yes 21%No 80%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?"?
433 wallets hold a position worth $151K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 427 of them. The largest Yes holder is presspablo, with $4.8K on it, $4.0K lifetime profit over 20 markets (65% won). The largest No holder is 0x766d95f30cF841f4870804B7384e692Bd9F210dE-1773682612928, with $27K on it, $1.2K lifetime profit over 2 markets (100% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 15¢ and No at 85¢, an 85% implied chance of No. $500K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on April 1, 2028.
Which side is the smart money on?
42% of the money on Yes and 42% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago, No by 20 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on April 1, 2028. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Is there insider betting on this market?
2 wallets on Yes ($5.3K) match the pattern of insider bets: a fresh or dormant wallet putting a lot on long odds. A flag is a pattern, not proof.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.