Who's betting on “Will Santiago Abascal be the next Prime Minister of Spain?”?
Politics · $286K volume · Ends March 31, 2028 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $286K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on March 31, 2028.
22% of the money on Yes and 78% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 56 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 67 points. A week ago, No by 63 points.
146 wallets hold a position worth $22K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 146 of them. The largest Yes holder is aneale014, with $1.2K on it, $20 lifetime loss over 5 markets (40% won). The largest No holder is knrad, with $9.3K on it, $37K lifetime profit over 1,107 markets (62% won).
- Smart money share
- 22% ▲ 1 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 95
- Money on it
- $3.5K
- Holders' winrate
- 44%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 78% ▼ 10 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 51
- Money on it
- $19K
- Holders' winrate
- 54%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| aneale014 | $1.2K | -$20 | 40% of 5 |
| AGUILA3300 | $764 | +$0 | - |
| moneymaker56 | $216 | +$0 | - |
| WSmovinnoise | $201 | +$3.3K | 31% of 67 |
| MaxEntnoise | $105 | +$3.5K | 41% of 351 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| knradwhale | $9.3K | +$37K | 62% of 1,107 |
| ZIONISTARECUCKS | $2.2K | -$184 | 33% of 3 |
| 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495noise | $1.5K | +$318K | 22% of 11,530 |
| donthackmenoise | $1.2K | +$907K | 29% of 69,634 |
| eratoxtenexbalanced | $853 | +$1.5K | 52% of 394 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Next Prime Minister of Spain?
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- Yolanda Díaz$174K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Óscar Puente$76K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- María Jesús Montero$35K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Miguel Tellado$24K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Carles Puigdemont$20K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Ester Muñoz$17K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Cuca Gamarra$17K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Borja Sémper$16K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Pepa Millán$16K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Ernest Urtasun$16K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Aitor Esteban$15K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will Santiago Abascal be the next Prime Minister of Spain?"?
146 wallets hold a position worth $22K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 146 of them. The largest Yes holder is aneale014, with $1.2K on it, $20 lifetime loss over 5 markets (40% won). The largest No holder is knrad, with $9.3K on it, $37K lifetime profit over 1,107 markets (62% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Santiago Abascal be the next Prime Minister of Spain?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $286K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on March 31, 2028.
Which side is the smart money on?
22% of the money on Yes and 78% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 56 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 67 points. A week ago, No by 63 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on March 31, 2028. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.