Who's betting on “Will Russia invade another country in 2026?”?
Politics · $629K volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 25, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 5¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $629K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
55% of the money on Yes and 66% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 11 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 12 points. A week ago, No by 12 points.
579 wallets hold a position worth $270K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 577 of them. The largest Yes holder is LlamaLoco0000, with $3.5K on it, $348K lifetime profit over 297 markets (45% won). The largest No holder is NeH, with $48K on it, $72K lifetime loss over 159 markets (50% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $950 on No.
- Smart money share
- 55%
- Holders
- 220
- Money on it
- $13K
- Holders' winrate
- 51%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 66%
- Holders
- 359
- Money on it
- $256K
- Holders' winrate
- 72%
- Snipers
- 1 · $950
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| LlamaLoco0000noise | $3.5K | +$348K | 45% of 297 |
| Impure-Anniversary | $1.3K | +$1.4K | 57% of 14 |
| vsesoso | $961 | -$402 | 100% of 1 |
| whysoslow | $917 | +$0 | - |
| Muookjhnoise | $723 | +$2.0K | 32% of 34 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| NeH | $48K | -$72K | 50% of 159 |
| Donny.Twhale | $47K | +$29K | 71% of 807 |
| goroviwhale | $31K | +$30K | 93% of 373 |
| Scoofy-Bubik | $23K | -$221 | 96% of 81 |
| VladimirPoopernoise | $18K | +$86K | 38% of 24 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$75M vol.Yes 19%No 81%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Russia invade another country in 2026?"?
579 wallets hold a position worth $270K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 577 of them. The largest Yes holder is LlamaLoco0000, with $3.5K on it, $348K lifetime profit over 297 markets (45% won). The largest No holder is NeH, with $48K on it, $72K lifetime loss over 159 markets (50% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Russia invade another country in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 5¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $629K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
55% of the money on Yes and 66% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 11 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 12 points. A week ago, No by 12 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.