Archive · October 2026
Polymarket markets resolved in October 2026
1000 big markets. A day before the close, smart money leaned on 517 of them and was right on 229 (44%).
- Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?$83M vol. · politics · closed 2026-10-06Resolved NoDay before: Yes ✗ Yes 66% / No 38%
- Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$62M vol. · politics · closed 2026-10-26Resolved NoDay before: Yes ✗ Yes 66% / No 31%
- Will Gedion Timothewos be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?$56M vol. · politics · closed 2026-10-06Resolved NoDay before: Yes ✗ Yes 49% / No 34%
- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$48M vol. · politics · closed 2026-10-26Resolved YesDay before: No ✗ Yes 37% / No 70%
- Will Shimelis Abdisa be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?$42M vol. · politics · closed 2026-10-06Resolved NoDay before: No ✓ Yes 36% / No 48%
- Will Belete Molla be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?$32M vol. · politics · closed 2026-10-06Resolved NoDay before: Yes ✗ Yes 63% / No 42%
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?$32M vol. · economy · closed 2026-10-28Resolved YesDay before: No ✗ Yes 65% / No 87%
- Will Berhanu Nega be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?$30M vol. · politics · closed 2026-10-06Resolved NoDay before: Yes ✗ Yes 74% / No 66%
- Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?$29M vol. · politics · closed 2026-10-06Resolved NoDay before: Yes ✗ Yes 61% / No 49%
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?$22M vol. · economy · closed 2026-10-28Resolved NoDay before: Yes ✗ Yes 91% / No 84%
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?$20M vol. · economy · closed 2026-10-28Resolved NoDay before: No ✓ Yes 74% / No 90%
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?$18M vol. · economy · closed 2026-10-28Resolved NoDay before: No ✓ Yes 30% / No 86%
- Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$17M vol. · politics · closed 2026-10-05Resolved NoDay before: No ✓ Yes 20% / No 68%
- Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$15M vol. · sports · closed 2026-10-27Resolved YesDay before: No ✗ Yes 34% / No 41%
- Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$15M vol. · politics · closed 2026-10-05Resolved NoDay before: Yes ✗ Yes 61% / No 61%
- Will Alesa Mengesha be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?$14M vol. · politics · closed 2026-10-06Resolved NoDay before: Yes ✗ Yes 58% / No 32%
- Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$13M vol. · sports · closed 2026-10-27Resolved NoDay before: Yes ✗ Yes 54% / No 40%
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?$12M vol. · politics · closed 2026-10-06Resolved NoDay before: No ✓ Yes 39% / No 78%
- Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$11M vol. · sports · closed 2026-10-27Resolved NoDay before: No ✓ Yes 55% / No 63%
- Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$11M vol. · sports · closed 2026-10-27Resolved NoDay before: No ✓ Yes 68% / No 82%
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?$11M vol. · economy · closed 2026-10-28Resolved NoDay before: No ✓ Yes 47% / No 91%
- Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$11M vol. · politics · closed 2026-10-05Resolved NoDay before: Yes ✗ Yes 85% / No 56%
- Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$10M vol. · politics · closed 2026-10-05Resolved NoDay before: Yes ✗ Yes 85% / No 71%
- Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$10M vol. · politics · closed 2026-10-05Resolved NoDay before: Yes ✗ Yes 73% / No 46%
- Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-14?$9.9M vol. · sports · closed 2026-10-14Resolved YesDay before: No ✗ Yes 39% / No 99%
- Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$9.2M vol. · politics · closed 2026-10-05Resolved NoDay before: Yes ✗ Yes 67% / No 56%
- Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$8.9M vol. · sports · closed 2026-10-27Resolved NoDay before: No ✓ Yes 51% / No 95%
- Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-10-13?$8.1M vol. · sports · closed 2026-10-13Resolved YesDay before: No ✗ Yes 70% / No 90%
- Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$8.0M vol. · politics · closed 2026-10-05Resolved NoDay before: Yes ✗ Yes 87% / No 79%
- Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$8.0M vol. · sports · closed 2026-10-27Resolved NoDay before: Yes ✗ Yes 59% / No 47%
- Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$8.0M vol. · politics · closed 2026-10-09Resolved NoDay before: No ✓ Yes 13% / No 83%
- Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-10-24?$8.0M vol. · sports · closed 2026-10-24Resolved NoDay before: Yes ✗ Yes 67% / No 14%
- Will Spain win on 2026-10-06?$7.8M vol. · sports · closed 2026-10-06Resolved YesDay before: No ✗ Yes 7% / No 52%
- Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$7.8M vol. · politics · closed 2026-10-05Resolved NoDay before: Yes ✗ Yes 62% / No 41%
- Cavaliers vs. 76ers$7.8M vol. · sports · closed 2026-10-23Resolved 76ersDay before: Cavaliers ✗ Cavaliers 84% / 76ers 19%
- Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$7.7M vol. · politics · closed 2026-10-05Resolved NoDay before: Yes ✗ Yes 70% / No 49%
- Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$7.7M vol. · politics · closed 2026-10-05Resolved NoDay before: Yes ✗ Yes 68% / No 4%
- Lions vs. Panthers$7.7M vol. · sports · closed 2026-10-05Resolved PanthersDay before: Panthers ✓ Lions 17% / Panthers 74%
- Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-18?$7.6M vol. · sports · closed 2026-10-18Resolved YesDay before: No ✗ Yes 37% / No 82%
- Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$7.6M vol. · politics · closed 2026-10-05Resolved NoDay before: No ✓ Yes 27% / No 64%
- Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-10-18?$7.5M vol. · sports · closed 2026-10-18Resolved YesDay before: Yes ✓ Yes 98% / No 8%
- Ravens vs. Falcons$7.3M vol. · sports · closed 2026-10-12Resolved RavensDay before: Ravens ✓ Ravens 12% / Falcons 10%
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?$7.2M vol. · politics · closed 2026-10-01Resolved NoDay before: No ✓ Yes 46% / No 73%
- Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?$7.0M vol. · sports · closed 2026-10-26Resolved NoDay before: Yes ✗ Yes 32% / No 16%
- Trail Blazers vs. Lakers$6.9M vol. · sports · closed 2026-10-28Resolved Trail BlazersDay before: Lakers ✗ Trail Blazers 38% / Lakers 72%
- Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?$6.8M vol. · tech · closed 2026-10-20Resolved YesDay before: Yes ✓ Yes 100% / No 11%
- Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$6.8M vol. · sports · closed 2026-10-27Resolved NoDay before: No ✓ Yes 65% / No 76%
- Seahawks vs. Broncos$6.7M vol. · sports · closed 2026-10-16Resolved BroncosDay before: Broncos ✓ Seahawks 95% / Broncos 97%
- 76ers vs. Knicks$6.6M vol. · sports · closed 2026-10-21Resolved 76ersDay before: Knicks ✗ 76ers 48% / Knicks 80%
- Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?$6.6M vol. · sports · closed 2026-10-26Resolved NoDay before: Yes ✗ Yes 30% / No 15%
- Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?$6.5M vol. · sports · closed 2026-10-04Resolved NoDay before: Yes ✗ Yes 56% / No 36%
- Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?$6.3M vol. · politics · closed 2026-10-26Resolved YesDay before: No ✗ Yes 31% / No 72%
- Bills vs. Rams$6.3M vol. · sports · closed 2026-10-13Resolved BillsDay before: Bills ✓ Bills 39% / Rams 5%
- Will Sweden win on 2026-10-05?$6.1M vol. · sports · closed 2026-10-05Resolved YesDay before: No ✗ Yes 32% / No 74%
- Chiefs vs. Seahawks$5.9M vol. · sports · closed 2026-10-26Resolved SeahawksDay before: Seahawks ✓ Chiefs 15% / Seahawks 93%
- Broncos vs. 49ers$5.7M vol. · sports · closed 2026-10-05Resolved 49ersDay before: 49ers ✓ Broncos 53% / 49ers 78%
- Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-10-15?$5.6M vol. · sports · closed 2026-10-15Resolved YesNo call on record
- Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$5.6M vol. · politics · closed 2026-10-05Resolved NoDay before: Yes ✗ Yes 73% / No 47%
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?$5.6M vol. · politics · closed 2026-10-01Resolved NoDay before: Yes ✗ Yes 63% / No 63%
- Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?$5.5M vol. · sports · closed 2026-10-26Resolved NoDay before: Yes ✗ Yes 39% / No 38%
- Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$5.5M vol. · politics · closed 2026-10-05Resolved NoDay before: No ✓ Yes 64% / No 69%
- Grizzlies vs. Jazz$5.3M vol. · sports · closed 2026-10-27Resolved GrizzliesNo call on record
- Commanders vs. 49ers$5.3M vol. · sports · closed 2026-10-20Resolved 49ersDay before: Commanders ✗ Commanders 87% / 49ers 67%
- Texans vs. Jaguars$5.2M vol. · sports · closed 2026-10-18Resolved TexansDay before: Jaguars ✗ Texans 13% / Jaguars 83%
- Will Fabian Ruiz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$5.2M vol. · sports · closed 2026-10-27Resolved NoDay before: Yes ✗ Yes 74% / No 51%
- Will Portugal win on 2026-10-01?$5.2M vol. · sports · closed 2026-10-01Resolved YesDay before: No ✗ Yes 28% / No 69%
- Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage$5.1M vol. · sports · closed 2026-10-06Resolved Team FalconsDay before: Natus Vincere ✗ Team Falcons 29% / Natus Vincere 94%
- Nuggets vs. Thunder$5.1M vol. · sports · closed 2026-10-23Resolved ThunderDay before: Nuggets ✗ Nuggets 43% / Thunder 13%
- Will Belgium win on 2026-10-02?$5.0M vol. · sports · closed 2026-10-02Resolved YesDay before: Yes ✓ Yes 50% / No 4%
- Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$5.0M vol. · politics · closed 2026-10-05Resolved NoDay before: Yes ✗ Yes 93% / No 80%
- Chiefs vs. Raiders$5.0M vol. · sports · closed 2026-10-05Resolved ChiefsDay before: Chiefs ✓ Chiefs 90% / Raiders 52%
- Steelers vs. Browns$5.0M vol. · sports · closed 2026-10-02Resolved BrownsDay before: Steelers ✗ Steelers 73% / Browns 44%
- Falcons vs. Saints$5.0M vol. · sports · closed 2026-10-06Resolved FalconsDay before: Saints ✗ Falcons 56% / Saints 79%
- LoL: Gen.G vs LYON (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage$4.9M vol. · sports · closed 2026-10-26Resolved Gen.GNo call on record
- LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Team Secret Whales (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage$4.9M vol. · sports · closed 2026-10-24Resolved Invictus GamingNo call on record
- LoL: G2 Esports vs LOS (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage$4.8M vol. · sports · closed 2026-10-24Resolved G2 EsportsNo call on record
- LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage$4.8M vol. · sports · closed 2026-10-25Resolved Dplus KIANo call on record
- Colts vs. Commanders$4.8M vol. · sports · closed 2026-10-04Resolved ColtsDay before: Commanders ✗ Colts 25% / Commanders 79%
- Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-25?$4.8M vol. · sports · closed 2026-10-25Resolved YesDay before: No ✗ Yes 15% / No 35%
- Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$4.8M vol. · sports · closed 2026-10-27Resolved NoDay before: No ✓ Yes 58% / No 72%
- Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$4.7M vol. · sports · closed 2026-10-27Resolved NoDay before: Yes ✗ Yes 67% / No 58%
- Pistons vs. 76ers$4.6M vol. · sports · closed 2026-10-26Resolved PistonsDay before: 76ers ✗ Pistons 50% / 76ers 83%
- Browns vs. Titans$4.5M vol. · sports · closed 2026-10-25Resolved BrownsDay before: Titans ✗ Browns 29% / Titans 91%
- Eagles vs. Jaguars$4.5M vol. · sports · closed 2026-10-11Resolved JaguarsDay before: Jaguars ✓ Eagles 23% / Jaguars 25%
- Grizzlies vs. Kings$4.5M vol. · sports · closed 2026-10-26Resolved GrizzliesDay before: Grizzlies ✓ Grizzlies 71% / Kings 60%
- Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?$4.5M vol. · politics · closed 2026-10-26Resolved NoDay before: Yes ✗ Yes 37% / No 11%
- Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers$4.5M vol. · sports · closed 2026-10-27Resolved CavaliersDay before: Cavaliers ✓ Timberwolves 35% / Cavaliers 75%
- Cowboys vs. Texans$4.4M vol. · sports · closed 2026-10-04Resolved CowboysDay before: Texans ✗ Cowboys 53% / Texans 57%
- LoL: Gen.G vs Invictus Gaming (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage$4.3M vol. · sports · closed 2026-10-23Resolved Gen.GDay before: Invictus Gaming ✗ Gen.G 42% / Invictus Gaming 66%
- 49ers vs. Seahawks$4.3M vol. · sports · closed 2026-10-12Resolved 49ersDay before: 49ers ✓ 49ers 71% / Seahawks 34%
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?$4.2M vol. · politics · closed 2026-10-06Resolved NoDay before: Yes ✗ Yes 83% / No 74%
- LoL: LYON vs Karmine Corp (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage$4.2M vol. · sports · closed 2026-10-24Resolved LYONNo call on record
- Thunder vs. Spurs$4.2M vol. · sports · closed 2026-10-21Resolved ThunderDay before: Spurs ✗ Thunder 56% / Spurs 73%
- Warriors vs. Nuggets$4.1M vol. · sports · closed 2026-10-27Resolved WarriorsDay before: Warriors ✓ Warriors 52% / Nuggets 34%
- LoL: Invictus Gaming vs LYON (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage$4.1M vol. · sports · closed 2026-10-29Resolved Invictus GamingDay before: Invictus Gaming ✓ Invictus Gaming 76% / LYON 49%
- Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-10-14?$4.1M vol. · sports · closed 2026-10-14Resolved YesDay before: Yes ✓ Yes 85% / No 76%
- LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Movistar KOI (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage$4.1M vol. · sports · closed 2026-10-23Resolved Movistar KOIDay before: Bilibili Gaming ✗ Bilibili Gaming 53% / Movistar KOI 39%
- LoL: Top Esports vs G2 Esports (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage$4.1M vol. · sports · closed 2026-10-25Resolved Top EsportsNo call on record
- Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$4.1M vol. · politics · closed 2026-10-05Resolved NoDay before: Yes ✗ Yes 90% / No 33%
- LoL: G2 Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage$4.1M vol. · sports · closed 2026-10-23Resolved Dplus KIADay before: G2 Esports ✗ G2 Esports 57% / Dplus KIA 50%
How often smart money is right, against the price. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.