Who's betting on “Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?”?
Economy · $9.2M volume · Ends October 29, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $9.2M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 29, 2026.
65% of the money on Yes and 95% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 30 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 31 points. A week ago, No by 44 points.
954 wallets hold a position worth $280K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 947 of them. The largest Yes holder is jsmythyson, with $5.7K on it, $183K lifetime profit over 12 markets (58% won). The largest No holder is foodenjoyer, with $185K on it, $1.2M lifetime profit over 147 markets (52% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $0 on Yes.
- Smart money share
- 65%
- Holders
- 362
- Money on it
- $16K
- Holders' winrate
- 58%
- Snipers
- 1 · $0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 95%
- Holders
- 592
- Money on it
- $264K
- Holders' winrate
- 62%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| jsmythyson | $5.7K | +$183K | 58% of 12 |
| anykey | $2.0K | -$65K | - |
| MysticFindwhale | $1.4K | +$377K | 51% of 155 |
| sS666 | $785 | -$19K | 100% of 1 |
| 50-Pencewhale | $532 | +$154K | 49% of 794 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| foodenjoyerwhale | $185K | +$1.2M | 52% of 147 |
| elmcap2whale | $24K | +$2.1M | 86% of 1,082 |
| tianjiyuyunzhiluwhale | $10.0K | +$28K | 91% of 359 |
| pigswalletgrinder | $7.5K | +$2.9K | 95% of 40 |
| 0xDafd27c48807E5f5A576BD8a3854342C47A65FFb-1758125162413grinder | $2.0K | +$7.5K | 86% of 301 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Fed Decision in October?
Other big economy markets
- US recession by end of 2026?$2.3M vol.Yes 9%No 92%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.1M vol.Yes 75%No 26%Smart money: Yes
- Another Fed rate hike in 2026?$1.0M vol.Yes 75%No 25%Smart money: Yes
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?$1.0M vol.Yes 21%No 80%Smart money split
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.0M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$791K vol.Yes 1%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$613K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?$285K vol.Yes 28%No 72%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?"?
954 wallets hold a position worth $280K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 947 of them. The largest Yes holder is jsmythyson, with $5.7K on it, $183K lifetime profit over 12 markets (58% won). The largest No holder is foodenjoyer, with $185K on it, $1.2M lifetime profit over 147 markets (52% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $9.2M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 29, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
65% of the money on Yes and 95% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 30 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 31 points. A week ago, No by 44 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on October 29, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.