Who's betting on “Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?”?
Economy · $1.0M volume · Ends December 9, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 21¢ and No at 80¢, an 80% implied chance of No. $1.0M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 9, 2026.
56% of the money on Yes and 54% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago, No by 8 points.
435 wallets hold a position worth $122K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 431 of them. The largest Yes holder is BlessedSunshine888, with $11K on it, $63K lifetime loss over 442 markets (31% won). The largest No holder is 0x9ad5…1811, with $9.4K on it, $3 lifetime loss over 1 markets (100% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $0 on No.
- Smart money share
- 56%
- Holders
- 342
- Money on it
- $91K
- Holders' winrate
- 56%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 54% ▼ 3 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 93
- Money on it
- $31K
- Holders' winrate
- 69%
- Snipers
- 1 · $0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| BlessedSunshine888 | $11K | -$63K | 31% of 442 |
| truthtellerwhale | $10K | +$131K | 63% of 1,055 |
| foodenjoyerwhale | $6.8K | +$1.2M | 52% of 147 |
| nigiri99 | $6.6K | -$1.4M | 46% of 13,551 |
| KimJonEnwhale | $5.3K | +$50K | 71% of 1,014 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x9ad5…1811 | $9.4K | -$3 | 100% of 1 |
| flexibleagedbeef | $7.2K | +$584 | 83% of 6 |
| simplemanwhale | $3.2K | +$90K | 53% of 1,032 |
| lissartter | $2.8K | -$270K | 56% of 2,742 |
| urawbalanced | $1.6K | +$7.2K | 79% of 129 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Fed Decision in December?
Other big economy markets
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?$18M vol.Yes 95%No 6%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?$14M vol.Yes 6%No 95%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?$11M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?$9.6M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?$9.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- US recession by end of 2026?$2.3M vol.Yes 9%No 92%Smart money: No
- Another Fed rate hike in 2026?$1.0M vol.Yes 75%No 25%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?$285K vol.Yes 28%No 72%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?"?
435 wallets hold a position worth $122K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 431 of them. The largest Yes holder is BlessedSunshine888, with $11K on it, $63K lifetime loss over 442 markets (31% won). The largest No holder is 0x9ad5…1811, with $9.4K on it, $3 lifetime loss over 1 markets (100% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 21¢ and No at 80¢, an 80% implied chance of No. $1.0M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 9, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
56% of the money on Yes and 54% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago, No by 8 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on December 9, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.