Who's betting on “US recession by end of 2026?”?
Economy · $2.3M volume · Ends January 31, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 9¢ and No at 92¢, a 92% implied chance of No. $2.3M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 31, 2027.
10% of the money on Yes and 64% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 54 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 53 points. A week ago, No by 54 points.
1,362 wallets hold a position worth $603K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,361 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0xa0f2…1848, with $34K on it, $3.5M lifetime loss over 2,404 markets (43% won). The largest No holder is tetrase, with $37K on it, $965K lifetime profit over 1,185 markets (65% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $6 on No.
- Smart money share
- 10%
- Holders
- 728
- Money on it
- $51K
- Holders' winrate
- 49%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 64%
- Holders
- 634
- Money on it
- $551K
- Holders' winrate
- 73%
- Snipers
- 1 · $6
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa0f2…1848 | $34K | -$3.5M | 43% of 2,404 |
| XVFlow | $5.9K | -$368K | 80% of 1,001 |
| Wojteknoise | $782 | +$54K | 15% of 225 |
| Chandaria | $728 | -$18K | 33% of 18 |
| tanye | $542 | +$136 | 56% of 9 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| tetrasewhale | $37K | +$965K | 65% of 1,185 |
| pmcbwhale | $24K | +$22K | 96% of 57 |
| MaxPowell | $22K | -$13K | 71% of 49 |
| baran-ludomanwhale | $22K | +$96K | 50% of 169 |
| allen111 | $22K | -$33K | 87% of 550 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
Other big economy markets
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?$18M vol.Yes 95%No 6%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?$14M vol.Yes 6%No 95%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?$11M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?$9.6M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?$9.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.1M vol.Yes 75%No 26%Smart money: Yes
- Another Fed rate hike in 2026?$1.0M vol.Yes 75%No 25%Smart money: Yes
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?$1.0M vol.Yes 21%No 80%Smart money split
Questions
Who is betting on "US recession by end of 2026?"?
1,362 wallets hold a position worth $603K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,361 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0xa0f2…1848, with $34K on it, $3.5M lifetime loss over 2,404 markets (43% won). The largest No holder is tetrase, with $37K on it, $965K lifetime profit over 1,185 markets (65% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "US recession by end of 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 9¢ and No at 92¢, a 92% implied chance of No. $2.3M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 31, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
10% of the money on Yes and 64% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 54 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 53 points. A week ago, No by 54 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 31, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.