Who's betting on “Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?”?
Economy · $1.1M volume · Ends December 9, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 75¢ and No at 26¢, a 75% implied chance of Yes. $1.1M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 9, 2026.
83% of the money on Yes and 53% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 30 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 48 points. A week ago, Yes by 61 points.
367 wallets hold a position worth $403K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 365 of them. The largest Yes holder is CDAP1, with $222K on it, $142K lifetime profit over 26 markets (77% won). The largest No holder is anoin123, with $7.7K on it, $4.9M lifetime loss over 1,429 markets (60% won).
- Smart money share
- 83% ▼ 4 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 213
- Money on it
- $377K
- Holders' winrate
- 72%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 53% ▲ 14 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 154
- Money on it
- $26K
- Holders' winrate
- 59%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| CDAP1whale | $222K | +$142K | 77% of 26 |
| sun56 | $23K | +$0 | - |
| Supernature88 | $15K | +$0 | - |
| Avamaxwhale | $15K | +$14K | 74% of 761 |
| HelloWorld2024whale | $11K | +$344 | 89% of 216 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| anoin123 | $7.7K | -$4.9M | 60% of 1,429 |
| 0xcf19…6402whale | $5.9K | +$173K | 54% of 469 |
| truthtellerwhale | $2.9K | +$131K | 63% of 1,055 |
| SunlineTickerwhale | $1.4K | +$323K | 71% of 1,181 |
| lissartter | $942 | -$270K | 56% of 2,742 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Fed Decision in December?
Other big economy markets
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?$18M vol.Yes 95%No 6%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?$14M vol.Yes 6%No 95%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?$11M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?$9.6M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?$9.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- US recession by end of 2026?$2.3M vol.Yes 9%No 92%Smart money: No
- Another Fed rate hike in 2026?$1.0M vol.Yes 75%No 25%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?$285K vol.Yes 28%No 72%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?"?
367 wallets hold a position worth $403K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 365 of them. The largest Yes holder is CDAP1, with $222K on it, $142K lifetime profit over 26 markets (77% won). The largest No holder is anoin123, with $7.7K on it, $4.9M lifetime loss over 1,429 markets (60% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 75¢ and No at 26¢, a 75% implied chance of Yes. $1.1M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 9, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
83% of the money on Yes and 53% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 30 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 48 points. A week ago, Yes by 61 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on December 9, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.