Who's betting on “Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?”?
Economy · $18M volume · Ends October 29, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 95¢ and No at 6¢, a 95% implied chance of Yes. $18M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 29, 2026.
59% of the money on Yes and 77% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 18 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 18 points. A week ago it was split.
1,553 wallets hold a position worth $7.6M in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,541 of them. The largest Yes holder is HH168, with $520K on it, $208K lifetime profit over 122 markets (54% won). The largest No holder is jsmythyson, with $48K on it, $183K lifetime profit over 12 markets (58% won).
5 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $22K on Yes; 3 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $256 on No; the insider radar has flagged 1 wallet betting $5.0K on Yes.
- Smart money share
- 59%
- Holders
- 1,000
- Money on it
- $7.5M
- Holders' winrate
- 69%
- Snipers
- 5 · $22K
- Insider flags
- 1 · $5.0K
- Smart money share
- 77%
- Holders
- 553
- Money on it
- $100K
- Holders' winrate
- 57%
- Snipers
- 3 · $256
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| HH168whale | $520K | +$208K | 54% of 122 |
| suntori | $427K | -$12M | 47% of 62,299 |
| arjennnnn | $425K | -$107K | 72% of 1,209 |
| Ronaldo2100whale | $397K | +$293K | 68% of 406 |
| pakowhale | $332K | +$386K | 81% of 382 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| jsmythyson | $48K | +$183K | 58% of 12 |
| LimitOrderLarry | $12K | -$7.9K | 41% of 1,544 |
| wan123whale | $5.5K | +$1.2M | 79% of 273 |
| MysticFindwhale | $4.5K | +$377K | 51% of 155 |
| SaylorMoonwhale | $3.9K | +$488K | 52% of 1,079 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Fed Decision in October?
Other big economy markets
- US recession by end of 2026?$2.3M vol.Yes 9%No 92%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.1M vol.Yes 75%No 26%Smart money: Yes
- Another Fed rate hike in 2026?$1.0M vol.Yes 75%No 25%Smart money: Yes
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?$1.0M vol.Yes 21%No 80%Smart money split
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.0M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$791K vol.Yes 1%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$613K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?$285K vol.Yes 28%No 72%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?"?
1,553 wallets hold a position worth $7.6M in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,541 of them. The largest Yes holder is HH168, with $520K on it, $208K lifetime profit over 122 markets (54% won). The largest No holder is jsmythyson, with $48K on it, $183K lifetime profit over 12 markets (58% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 95¢ and No at 6¢, a 95% implied chance of Yes. $18M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 29, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
59% of the money on Yes and 77% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 18 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 18 points. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on October 29, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Is there insider betting on this market?
1 wallet on Yes ($5.0K) match the pattern of insider bets: a fresh or dormant wallet putting a lot on long odds. A flag is a pattern, not proof.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.