Who's betting on “Another Fed rate hike in 2026?”?
Economy · $1.0M volume · Ends December 10, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 75¢ and No at 25¢, a 75% implied chance of Yes. $1.0M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 10, 2026.
89% of the money on Yes and 73% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 16 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 13 points. A week ago, Yes by 15 points.
527 wallets hold a position worth $475K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 522 of them. The largest Yes holder is TheReturnOfDarthMaul, with $60K on it, $1.5M lifetime profit over 1,014 markets (60% won). The largest No holder is foodenjoyer, with $64K on it, $1.2M lifetime profit over 147 markets (52% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $53K on Yes; 1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $75 on No.
- Smart money share
- 89%
- Holders
- 296
- Money on it
- $356K
- Holders' winrate
- 65%
- Snipers
- 1 · $53K
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 73% ▼ 2 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 231
- Money on it
- $119K
- Holders' winrate
- 47%
- Snipers
- 1 · $75
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| TheReturnOfDarthMaulwhale | $60K | +$1.5M | 60% of 1,014 |
| simplemanwhale | $54K | +$90K | 53% of 1,032 |
| TheyAreTakingTheHobitsToIsengardsniper | $53K | +$476K | 91% of 160 |
| Roflan-ludomanwhale | $25K | +$195K | 57% of 1,022 |
| 0x74B4F9447B14b12308963FC048Ae363EB0756bEA-1769170826159whale | $20K | +$41K | 75% of 416 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| foodenjoyerwhale | $64K | +$1.2M | 52% of 147 |
| Ferwherenoise | $18K | +$184K | 19% of 90 |
| suntori | $7.4K | -$12M | 47% of 62,145 |
| wafer10 | $5.5K | +$0 | - |
| bambooo | $4.7K | -$64K | 38% of 55 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
Other big economy markets
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?$18M vol.Yes 95%No 6%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?$14M vol.Yes 6%No 95%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?$11M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?$9.6M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?$9.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- US recession by end of 2026?$2.3M vol.Yes 9%No 92%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.1M vol.Yes 75%No 26%Smart money: Yes
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?$1.0M vol.Yes 21%No 80%Smart money split
Questions
Who is betting on "Another Fed rate hike in 2026?"?
527 wallets hold a position worth $475K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 522 of them. The largest Yes holder is TheReturnOfDarthMaul, with $60K on it, $1.5M lifetime profit over 1,014 markets (60% won). The largest No holder is foodenjoyer, with $64K on it, $1.2M lifetime profit over 147 markets (52% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Another Fed rate hike in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 75¢ and No at 25¢, a 75% implied chance of Yes. $1.0M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 10, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
89% of the money on Yes and 73% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 16 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 13 points. A week ago, Yes by 15 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on December 10, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.