Who's betting on “Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?”?
Sports · $3.7M volume · Ends October 27, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $3.7M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 27, 2026.
55% of the money on Yes and 72% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 17 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 22 points. A week ago, No by 20 points.
533 wallets hold a position worth $4.8K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 529 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x54cb…1c44, with $112 on it, $107 lifetime loss over 3 markets (67% won). The largest No holder is Elias.Thornwell, with $2.1K on it, $4.5K lifetime profit over 2,940 markets (69% won).
2 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $4 on Yes.
- Smart money share
- 55% ▲ 4 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 435
- Money on it
- $1.2K
- Holders' winrate
- 55%
- Snipers
- 2 · $4
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 72%
- Holders
- 98
- Money on it
- $3.6K
- Holders' winrate
- 65%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x54cb…1c44 | $112 | -$107 | 67% of 3 |
| koninginhetuniversewhale | $103 | +$4.1K | 63% of 2,058 |
| Gfrancog | $79 | -$642 | 47% of 17 |
| TimeTravelerwhale | $63 | +$149K | 88% of 1,276 |
| 0x6778…d065 | $60 | - | - |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elias.Thornwellwhale | $2.1K | +$4.5K | 69% of 2,940 |
| fqweqfq | $103 | -$433 | 68% of 37 |
| cxvzvxczbalanced | $96 | +$473 | 67% of 39 |
| vczxvxzc | $96 | -$310 | 61% of 36 |
| vsddfsf | $96 | -$1.4K | 50% of 38 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Ballon d'Or Winner 2026
- Harry Kane$7.2M vol.Yes 70%No 30%Smart money: No
- Kylian Mbappé$6.2M vol.Yes 20%No 80%Smart money: Yes
- Lionel Messi$5.8M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Lamine Yamal$5.7M vol.Yes 9%No 91%Smart money: No
- Ousmane Dembélé$4.4M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Rodri$4.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Khvicha Kvaratskhelia$4.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Fabian Ruiz$3.6M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Michael Olise$3.4M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Jude Bellingham$1.7M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Pau Cubarsi$1.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Vinícius Júnior$1.1M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Declan Rice$964K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Vitinha$959K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Achraf Hakimi$768K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Bruno Fernandes$739K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Lautaro Martinez$510K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Luis Diaz$461K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
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- Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?$5.6M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?"?
533 wallets hold a position worth $4.8K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 529 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x54cb…1c44, with $112 on it, $107 lifetime loss over 3 markets (67% won). The largest No holder is Elias.Thornwell, with $2.1K on it, $4.5K lifetime profit over 2,940 markets (69% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $3.7M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 27, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
55% of the money on Yes and 72% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 17 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 22 points. A week ago, No by 20 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on October 27, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.