Who's betting on “Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?”?
Sports · $5.8M volume · Ends October 27, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $5.8M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 27, 2026.
67% of the money on Yes and 82% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 15 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 35 points. A week ago, No by 35 points.
1,579 wallets hold a position worth $536K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,550 of them. The largest Yes holder is surfandturf, with $5.5K on it, $14K lifetime profit over 748 markets (53% won). The largest No holder is schizohedgehog, with $102K on it, $164K lifetime profit over 65 markets (80% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $4.1K on No.
- Smart money share
- 67% ▲ 17 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 1,000
- Money on it
- $29K
- Holders' winrate
- 56%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 82% ▼ 2 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 579
- Money on it
- $506K
- Holders' winrate
- 75%
- Snipers
- 1 · $4.1K
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| surfandturfwhale | $5.5K | +$14K | 53% of 748 |
| aimforthebushesnoise | $3.4K | +$19K | 31% of 26 |
| 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107whale | $3.1K | +$70K | 67% of 1,877 |
| borja13whale | $1.8K | +$35K | 90% of 208 |
| Gfrancog | $456 | -$642 | 47% of 17 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| schizohedgehogwhale | $102K | +$164K | 80% of 65 |
| thoodrwhale | $40K | +$91K | 96% of 810 |
| bearbees2whale | $39K | +$34K | 84% of 251 |
| Anjunwhale | $34K | +$787K | 66% of 1,833 |
| DonaldinhoTrumpito | $25K | -$329K | 37% of 1,004 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Ballon d'Or Winner 2026
- Harry Kane$7.2M vol.Yes 71%No 29%Smart money: No
- Kylian Mbappé$6.2M vol.Yes 19%No 81%Smart money: Yes
- Lamine Yamal$5.7M vol.Yes 10%No 90%Smart money: No
- Ousmane Dembélé$4.4M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Rodri$4.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Khvicha Kvaratskhelia$4.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Erling Haaland$3.7M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Fabian Ruiz$3.6M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Michael Olise$3.4M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Jude Bellingham$1.7M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Pau Cubarsi$1.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Vinícius Júnior$1.1M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Declan Rice$964K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Vitinha$959K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Achraf Hakimi$768K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Bruno Fernandes$739K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Lautaro Martinez$510K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Luis Diaz$461K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
Other big sports markets
- Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?$35M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-10-24?$7.5M vol.Yes 34%No 67%Smart money: Yes
- Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?$7.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?$6.6M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship?$5.8M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?$5.6M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?$5.5M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?$4.8M vol.Yes 98%No 2%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?"?
1,579 wallets hold a position worth $536K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,550 of them. The largest Yes holder is surfandturf, with $5.5K on it, $14K lifetime profit over 748 markets (53% won). The largest No holder is schizohedgehog, with $102K on it, $164K lifetime profit over 65 markets (80% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $5.8M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 27, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
67% of the money on Yes and 82% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 15 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 35 points. A week ago, No by 35 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on October 27, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.