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Who's betting on “Will Luis Diaz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?”?

Sports · $461K volume · Ends October 27, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026

Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $461K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 27, 2026.

90% of the money on Yes and 89% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 9 points. A week ago, Yes by 19 points.

219 wallets hold a position worth $1.3K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 219 of them. The largest Yes holder is JustCrazy, with $154 on it, $32K lifetime profit over 264 markets (47% won). The largest No holder is cadcqqq, with $90 on it, $832 lifetime profit over 37 markets (70% won).

1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $1 on Yes.

Yes0%
Smart money share
90% ▲ 1 pts 24 h
Holders
207
Money on it
$1.2K
Holders' winrate
44%
Snipers
1 · $1
Insider flags
0
No100%
Smart money share
89% ▲ 9 pts 24 h
Holders
12
Money on it
$148
Holders' winrate
77%
Snipers
0
Insider flags
0

The biggest holders on each side

Yes
TraderPositionLifetime P&LWon
JustCrazywhale$154+$32K47% of 264
forgotmydinnernoise$110+$274K38% of 2,665
0xC03cE4d8Af842Ca6251Ac57228B3Ffb166ed50Awhale$80+$1.2M57% of 972
e46m3whale$64+$1.1M47% of 73,838
kneelbeforethekingnoise$56+$218K41% of 1,299
No
TraderPositionLifetime P&LWon
cadcqqqbalanced$90+$83270% of 37
0xE1FaF909A6a91876B8131680B60b598118a4a16F-1772121577778$20+$5198% of 53
luminaebalanced$19+$4185% of 205
0x7743b4666B00b1AAFC1b9FB09E0A30e4B48AE0d3-1772191583516$11-$195% of 37
AshleySteele879$4-$036% of 42
Every holder, the full history, and alerts when the smart money moves

Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.

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Questions

Who is betting on "Will Luis Diaz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?"?

219 wallets hold a position worth $1.3K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 219 of them. The largest Yes holder is JustCrazy, with $154 on it, $32K lifetime profit over 264 markets (47% won). The largest No holder is cadcqqq, with $90 on it, $832 lifetime profit over 37 markets (70% won).

What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Luis Diaz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?"?

Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $461K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 27, 2026.

Which side is the smart money on?

90% of the money on Yes and 89% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 9 points. A week ago, Yes by 19 points.

When does this market end?

It is set to end on October 27, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.

Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.

Will Luis Diaz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Who's betting on Polymarket · Polkyo