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Who's betting on “Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?”?

Sports · $1.3M volume · Ends October 27, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026

Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $1.3M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 27, 2026.

61% of the money on Yes and 66% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 6 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 9 points. A week ago, No by 6 points.

304 wallets hold a position worth $1.8K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 303 of them. The largest Yes holder is PublioCornelio, with $171 on it, $31K lifetime loss over 153 markets (51% won). The largest No holder is Elias.Thornwell, with $161 on it, $4.5K lifetime profit over 2,940 markets (69% won).

1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $1 on Yes.

Yes0%
Smart money share
61% ▲ 4 pts 24 h
Holders
289
Money on it
$1.2K
Holders' winrate
49%
Snipers
1 · $1
Insider flags
0
No100%
Smart money leans here
Smart money share
66%
Holders
15
Money on it
$602
Holders' winrate
72%
Snipers
0
Insider flags
0

The biggest holders on each side

Yes
TraderPositionLifetime P&LWon
PublioCornelio$171-$31K51% of 153
forgotmydinnernoise$98+$274K38% of 2,665
0xC03cE4d8Af842Ca6251Ac57228B3Ffb166ed50Awhale$79+$1.2M57% of 972
e46m3whale$61+$1.1M47% of 73,838
Llovani$58-$64473% of 48
No
TraderPositionLifetime P&LWon
Elias.Thornwellwhale$161+$4.5K69% of 2,940
xasdasdf$100-$67062% of 45
Goldblad$100+$3.9K100% of 13
cvsvdsfvfdsbalanced$94+$57268% of 44
qerdsa$90-$33759% of 37
Every holder, the full history, and alerts when the smart money moves

Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.

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Questions

Who is betting on "Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?"?

304 wallets hold a position worth $1.8K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 303 of them. The largest Yes holder is PublioCornelio, with $171 on it, $31K lifetime loss over 153 markets (51% won). The largest No holder is Elias.Thornwell, with $161 on it, $4.5K lifetime profit over 2,940 markets (69% won).

What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?"?

Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $1.3M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 27, 2026.

Which side is the smart money on?

61% of the money on Yes and 66% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 6 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 9 points. A week ago, No by 6 points.

When does this market end?

It is set to end on October 27, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.

Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.

Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Who's betting on Polymarket · Polkyo